Global Outlook

The end of June brought monsoon rains to North India as it always does. The rains were a welcome respite from the scorching heat the region reeled under since March. The heat waves that swept through North India in 2023 attest to the fact that India is witnessing and enduring the impacts of climate change.

The Ukraine war is not between Russia and Ukraine but between Russia and NATO led by the US. Russia’s declared objective of its “special military operation” is preventing the future expansion of NATO closer to its borders. If this proposition is correct, then one cannot avoid the conclusion that Russia has so far not gained any of its objectives in this war.

The Wagner coup equation doesn’t compute. It just doesn’t add up. Herbert Wulf gave us a concise summary of the surreal 24 hours that gripped the world. But there are missing pieces of the puzzle that we haven’t been given.

In less than 24 hours, the march on Moscow of the Wagner troops led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of this military company, was over. It remains to be seen whether this attack has permanently weakened Vladimir Putin's authority and power.

Tensions remain high in Northeast Asia following the G7 summit, which asserted the principles of the US-led order rather than seeking to accommodate the conflicting interests and orders in the region.

How to deal with China? The Western industrialised countries have been trying for some time to find a convincing China strategy. The seven major economic powers that make up the G7 agree that it is not a matter of de-coupling economically from China, but of avoiding risks and reducing dependencies. This strategy is now referred to by the catchy Anglo-Saxon term "de-risking".