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Latest Policy Briefs and Reports
Amerika: MAGA, China, Imperial Decline, Democracy
Report No.219 - April, 2025 • By John Keane
This report examines the current rivalries between the USA and China—two entangled but differently structured empires—which are triggering mental confusions, public anxieties and political misunderstandings and fears. Getting the measure of these world-shaping dynamics should be a priority for every thinking person, but the task is hampered by much bluff and bluster, propaganda and disinformation on both sides. Confronted by Russian-style despotisms, a rising Chinese empire and an angry America bearishly in retreat and decline, democrats everywhere might realise that this is a moment of opportunity not to be wasted, a tipping point in which the future of democracy no longer depends on the approval and support of the United States. Post-imperial democracy will instead depend upon the solidarity of the shaken..
Cooperative Security, Arms Control and Disarmament
Adapting Co-operative Security: The OSCE's Challenges and Opportunities in a Fragmented World
Report No.218 - April, 2025 • By Fred Tanner
This report examines the evolution of co-operative security, the role of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) in arms control, crisis management, and emerging transnational threats such as cyber risks, migration, and climate change. In the face of a shift to fragmented, self-interested policies, the OSCE now faces unprecedented challenges due to geopolitical rivalries and institutional paralysis. With its consensus-based structure increasingly obstructed, alternative mechanisms—such as coalitions of the willing, structured dialogue, and flexible diplomatic formats—are proposed to sustain co-operative security. The paper concludes by assessing the OSCE’s potential role in post-war Ukraine and the broader European security architecture.
Peace and Security in Northeast Asia
US-China Reassurance: Theory and Practice
Summary Report No.217 - March, 2025 • By Kai He
This Summary Report follows a recent Toda Research Cluster meeting on “US–China Reassurance.” In a global context which is increasingly volatile, a strategic approach is urgently needed to stabilize bilateral relations and prevent military conflicts between the United States and China. This report underscores the necessity of “reassurance” as a conflict prevention measure to address the growing risk of military confrontation and preserve the fragile “East Asian Peace” amid intensifying strategic competition and aims to provide actionable insights for mitigating tensions and fostering a more stable and cooperative relationship between the two great powers.
Social Media, Technology and Peacebuilding
Mapping Tech Design Regulation in the Global South
Report No.216 - March, 2025 • By Devika Malik
This report examines the diverse set of incentives across countries in the Global South which influence the integration of upstream product and design considerations in digital regulation. As well as highlighting these variations, the report details the state of regulation, and identifies both opportunities and barriers to advancing accountability in digital platforms through design-focused interventions.
Cooperative Security, Arms Control and Disarmament
Taking Stock — Moving Forward: Opportunities and Shortcomings from the Pact for the Future’s ‘International Peace and Security’ Actions
Summary Report No.215 - March, 2025 • By Apolline Foedit and Keith Krause
This report captures the key insights and debates from a two-day international conference on the Pact for the Future, convened by the CCDP and the Toda Peace Institute on 30–31 January 2025. The conference explored pressing questions, such as: What role can the Pact for the Future play in strengthening global peace and security? How can it address the growing challenges of multilateralism at a time when international cooperation seems increasingly fragile? What opportunities does it offer for advancing inclusive governance and conflict prevention? This report sheds light on the Pact for the Future’s implications for peace and security and the opportunities it presents for more effective and inclusive global governance.