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Latest Policy Briefs and Reports
Peace and Security in Northeast Asia
Clash of Dreams, Clash of Identities: Taiwan Between Deterrence and Reassurance
Policy Brief No.235 - July, 2025 • By Zheng Wang
This Policy Brief argues that the conflict over Taiwan’s status is not primarily driven by geopolitics or considerations for power. It is a struggle between rivalling national identities, reinforced by compelling historical narratives. This means that peace cannot be preserved by just mutual deterrence. Strategic reassurance, with a basis in respect for each other’s identity, may provide the key to preventing escalation to armed conflict. Reassurance complements deterrence by addressing the underlying identity fears. It sends the message that China’s national rejuvenation, Taiwan’s democratic survival, and US global leadership can all be maintained without war. Strategic reassurance reduces the existential cost of restraint, making compromise and coexistence politically and psychologically feasible.
From Backsliding to Recalibration? Trump 2.0 and Democracy in the Philippines
Report No.234 - July, 2025 • By Aries A. Arugay
This report analyses the three-fold impact of the Trump 2.0 presidency on Philippine domestic politics, economic sectors, and foreign policy. It argues that Trump’s restoration could reinforce authoritarian tendencies in the Philippines, undermine its economic resilience amid shifting global trade regimes and increasing economic coercion from China, and constrain its capacity for strategic autonomy within a highly volatile, uncertain, and complex international order.
The Gutting of Palestine
Report No.233 - July, 2025 • By Larbi Sadiki and Layla Saleh
This report outlines the paradoxical situation that Gaza finds itself in, at once in the worst position since 1948 with no political clout yet with unparalleled global expressions of solidarity. With geopolitical deadlock and the widening of the conflict, prospects of an end to Israel’s destruction of Gaza are as distant as ever. But momentum for a ceasefire, and even statehood, would likely be stronger were Palestinian political factions not themselves still divided.
Peace and Security in Northeast Asia
The Current Need for ‘Reassurance’ in the Taiwan Strait: A Chinese Mainland Perspective
Policy Brief No.232 - July, 2025 • By Shao Yuqun
The Chinese mainland government places significant importance on the assurances provided by both the US government and the Taiwan authorities regarding the Taiwan question. The author argues that the US should publicly declare that it pursues long-term peaceful coexistence with China, will not obstruct the peaceful reunification across the Taiwan Strait for the sake of strategic competition, and does not support Taiwan independence. Chinese officials can regularly restate the mainland’s policy towards Taiwan to the international community, emphasizing that "peaceful reunification is the best way to achieve cross-strait reunification." China should avoid engaging in the so-called ‘great power strategic competition’ with the United States and should conduct authorized ‘Track II’ dialogues with scholars and former officials from the DPP.
Democracy in the 21st Century: Fragility and Resilience
Summary Report No.231 - July, 2025 • By Apolline Foedit
This report summarizes the key discussions and outcomes of the 2025 annual meeting of the Toda Peace Institute’s Global Challenges to Democracy Working Group, held in Geneva on 5–6 June in collaboration with the Centre on Conflict, Development and Peacebuilding (CCDP), Geneva Graduate Institute. The meeting centred on three main themes: the democratic threats posed by Trump’s second presidency, strategies for strengthening democratic resilience, and the Toda Peace Institute’s contributions to this effort —particularly through the Democracy Lighthouse platform. The report captures the group’s shared concerns over democratic backsliding and outlines ongoing initiatives, including a systems map of democratic erosion, research on democratic resilience, and case studies on India and the MENA region.