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Latest Policy Briefs and Reports
Cooperative Security, Arms Control and Disarmament
China’s Expanding Arms Control Agenda and East Asian Security
Policy Brief No.273 - February, 2026 • By Sabine Mokry
This policy brief argues that the first standalone arms control white paper released by China in two decades positions China less as a participant in traditional arms-reduction frameworks and more as a rule-shaper in future security governance. The document signals a more assertive Chinese approach to arms control, combining long-standing principles such as no-first-use and UN-centred multilateralism with an expanded focus on emerging domains including artificial intelligence, cyberspace, and outer space. The brief assesses the implications of China’s approach for regional stability and outlines practical options for governments, international organisations, and civil society to engage China on arms control while mitigating escalation risks.
Afghanistan’s Pastoral Crisis: A Blind Spot in Humanitarian, Development and Policy Frameworks
Report No.272 - February, 2026 • By Muhammad Khurshid
This policy brief argues that the continued exclusion of Afghan pastoralists from humanitarian, development and national policy frameworks represents a critical policy failure with regional consequences extending to Pakistan, Iran, and Central Asia. Drawing on socio-political and ecological evidence, the brief demonstrates that pastoralists' marginalization undermines the pastoral economy, food security, fuels intercommunal conflict and exposes them to greater risks across border. It calls for the structured integration of pastoralist-responsive approaches that promote pastoralism as a viable and resilient livelihood system in Afghanistan.
Cooperative Security, Arms Control and Disarmament
The Case for Collective Security in Europe After the War in Ukraine
Report No.271 - February, 2026 • By Tom Sauer
This report asks how the European security order could be imagined once the fighting in Ukraine has stopped and aims to show that there are alternative and more inclusive scenarios. The end of the Ukraine–Russian war could be a historical turning point. Such moments in history open up the possibility to try to do things better than before. The first part of this paper describes the differences between two fundamentally different types of security constellation: balance of power and collective security. The second part asks, what would a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia look like? The third part addresses the questions, what would the post-war security constellation in Europe be? What role is left for NATO, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and the EU? Where would Ukraine fit in? And what about Russia?
After Degradation: A Roadmap for U.S. Democratic Repair
Report No.270 - January, 2026 • By Jordan Ryan
This report assesses democratic degradation in the United States as President Trump's second term marks its first anniversary and proposes a framework for recovery grounded in the sequencing logic of post-conflict peacebuilding. Because established frameworks for re-democratisation in advanced democracies remain underdeveloped, the report adapts insights from a field that has systematically addressed phased institutional reconstruction under conditions of contested authority and diminished public trust. The purpose is to address a shared problem: how to rebuild legitimate institutions when authority is disputed and confidence in governance is profoundly eroded. The result is a three-phase roadmap: preparation under constraint, action during transition windows, and long-term civic renewal. The framework may offer insights for other democracies facing institutional erosion.
Cooperative Security, Arms Control and Disarmament
Contested Future Paths in the War Against Ukraine: Conceivable Scenarios
Report No.269 - January, 2026 • By Herbert Wulf
This report discusses the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war. To end suffering and destruction in Ukraine it is necessary to stop this war. Pathways to peace are urgently required. So far, several proposals and negotiations have not led to any viable result. In Western Europe and the Ukraine there is great scepticism about the type of negotiations that the US administration orchestrates. The report analyses four possible scenarios: (1) Russia’s military victory, (2) War without end, (3) Escalation, both horizontal and vertical escalation, and (4) Successful negotiations. One intervening factor may be the state of Russia’s War Economy. Can Russia's economy continue to bear the burdens of this war?