Policy Briefs and Reports

This report synthesizes the findings of the 2025 Toda Research Cluster on Reassurance on the Korean Peninsula, bringing together theoretical, national, and policy perspectives from the United States, South Korea, Japan, China, and Russia. In the context of rising great-power rivalry and the consolidation of competing blocs, the contributors argue that deterrence alone cannot sustain stability. Drawing on insights from the five core papers, the report identifies mutual reassurance as an essential complement to deterrence. The analysis highlights converging recommendations for arms control-based risk reduction, revitalized inter-Korean and multilateral channels, calibrated adjustments to alliance posture, and leadership-level credibility. While acknowledging the long-term goal of denuclearization, the report emphasizes pragmatic pathways for near-term stabilization, offering a structured framework for building a durable reassurance architecture in Northeast Asia.

This policy brief examines the diplomatic challenges facing the Takaichi Administration. A clear direction in foreign and security policy can be inferred from the new prime minister’s cabinet appointments. This paper will delve into the structural challenge of the Takaichi administration's political vulnerability and explore the expectations and concerns of key international actors (the US and China) regarding this fragility. Finally, it will offer specific policy recommendations on how the Takaichi administration should execute a robust foreign and security policy to protect Japan's national interests under unstable political conditions, focusing particularly on diplomacy with South Korea to avoid undermining the critically important Japan–US–South Korea security cooperation.

The Korean Peninsula remains dangerously unstable due to irreconcilable end-states: North Korea's demand for nuclear recognition and regime autonomy versus the US–South Korea alliance's goal of deterrence, denuclearization, and democratic unification. This clash fuels distrust and heightens the risk of conflict, while regional powers complicate the dynamics. This policy brief proposes a stable coexistence framework to manage rivalry and reduce tensions, assuming denuclearization is off the table for now. The plan includes five themes: stable coexistence with respect for sovereignty, arms control without nuclear recognition, front-line guardrails, humanitarian/societal contact, and strengthening regional scaffolding. This approach seeks to narrow miscalculation pathways and manage risk while preserving each side's long-term political aims.