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Latest Policy Briefs and Reports
Peace and Security in Northeast Asia
Toward A ‘Reassurance Spiral’ in US-China Relations
Policy Brief No.224 - June, 2025 • By Carla Freeman
This policy brief examines how the United States and China could initiate a ‘reassurance spiral’ to reduce escalating tensions and mitigate the risk of military conflict. Bilateral relations are deteriorating amid growing strategic and economic competition, mutual insecurity, and reduced cooperation channels and the risks of frictions igniting conflict are on the rise. Both nations face an urgent need for reassurance strategies that credibly demonstrate benign intentions without compromising deterrence capabilities. This brief argues that reassurance is possible, despite significant challenges. There are initial steps that are ‘low cost’ that could enable the two countries to reassure each other to create reciprocal positive momentum that could evolve into reduced bilateral tensions.
Democracy in the Digital Age: Reclaiming Governance in an Algorithmic World
Policy Brief No.223 - May, 2025 • By Jordan Ryan
This policy brief argues that democratic governance must evolve as artificial intelligence becomes embedded in public life, often without transparency or public consent, and as the erosion of democratic processes directly threatens sustainable peace. Drawing on lessons from the 2025 UNDP Human Development Report and the 2024 UN Pact for the Future, this brief offers a framework for democratic digital governance that supports peacebuilding. It proposes five actions: establishing independent oversight bodies with enforcement powers; embedding civic participation in policymaking; expanding critical digital literacy; enforcing the Global Digital Compact; and protecting online civic space. With such measures, AI can enhance human agency, strengthen democratic institutions, and foster sustainable peace.
Cooperative Security, Arms Control and Disarmament
A New Normal in India-Pakistan Relations in the Age of Cross-border Terrorism
Policy Brief No.222 - May, 2025 • By Ramesh Thakur
This policy brief backgrounds the killing of 26 domestic tourists in Pahalgam, Kashmir by terrorists in April 2025 and the subsequent Operation Sindoor launched by India on alleged terrorist and military targets in Pakistan. It draws comparisons with the Israel-Palestine conflict, and concludes with recommendations for both India and Pakistan to work towards normalising bilateral relationships, and for international actors such as the United Nations to encourage efforts to shift the balance towards more peace and less violence.
Afghanistan’s Climate Crisis: A Call for Decentralised and Inclusive Finance
Policy Brief No.221 - May, 2025 • By Assem Mayar
This policy brief, based on new data and analysis published by the author in the Afghanistan Analysts Network, outlines Afghanistan’s escalating economic losses due to climate change and mounting adaptation costs, institutional constraints, and possible financing pathways. Fragile governance, limited fiscal space, and international non-recognition have restricted access to climate finance, forcing the country to rely on declining humanitarian aid. It argues that, without targeted international action, Afghanistan may become a harbinger of climate injustice and systemic failure in fragile states. The brief concludes with seven policy recommendations.
Countering Human Rights Regression to Safeguard Peace
Policy Brief No.220 - May, 2025 • By Jordan Ryan
This policy brief analyses the accelerating trend of human rights regression observed in early 2025 and its implications for global peace and security. Drawing on Human Rights Watch's April 2025 report, "100 Human Rights Harms in 100 Days”, it identifies three interlinked threats: the erosion of democratic institutions, discriminatory policies targeting vulnerable populations, and the deliberate retreat from multilateral frameworks. These developments directly contradict the commitments of the 2024 UN Pact for the Future, which reaffirmed the centrality of human rights to sustainable peace. The brief concludes with strategic imperatives for governments, international organisations, civil society, and funders to reverse current backsliding and restore rights-based approaches to conflict prevention, bridging the growing gap between multilateral aspirations and national realities.