Global Outlook

The new German coalition government will not rock the foundations of German foreign and security policy. It wants to remain a reliable partner in the EU and NATO. But it sends an important signal for disarmament and arms control efforts. The 177-page coalition agreement contains the following passage on the TPNW: "In light of the results of the NPT Review Conference and in close consultation with our allies, we will constructively accompany the intention of the treaty as observers (not as members) at the Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons."

For many, the Glasgow Climate Change Conference, known as COP26, was a significant disappointment. Much had been promised by the UK Government, but last-minute ructions over the reference to the phase out of coal left many with a sour taste in their mouth. Glasgow was an opportunity to steer the global community towards the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global temperatures to 1.5⁰C above pre-industrial levels. For Pacific Small Island Developing States, the Glasgow conference was to be the pivot point for global action to address climate change.

Only a few Pacific Islanders made it to Glasgow in November 2021 for COP26. Out of the approximately 30,000 conference attendees, only about 140 were from Pacific Island Countries (PICs). Due to COVID-19 restrictions, both government delegations and civil society representation were considerably smaller than at previous COPs.

Our atoll nation is barely two metres above sea level, and the waters are coming for us. Despite the progress and momentum of the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow, we are still not moving fast enough to avoid the worst of climate change.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison is embroiled in a tussle with both French President Emmanuel Macron and US President Joe Biden which, given the power asymmetries, risks leaving Australia exposed and vulnerable in a major-power league above its paygrade.

The US oversells its fear of China, which in turn pushes China into an almost hysterically aggressive posture of defence, only exacerbating the problem.