Global Outlook

The current Australian government is lagging far behind other developed countries on climate policies. It has been criticised domestically and internationally for its lack of commitment and efforts, not least from its neighbours in the Pacific. Pacific Island Countries (PICs) are particularly exposed and vulnerable to the effects of climate change, and they are at the forefront of international diplomatic initiatives on climate change.

So what next for Peace and Conflict Studies (PCS) after the systemic transition we currently appear to be undergoing? Peace and conflict studies, despite the positives noted in Part 1, failed to see much of this recent phase coming (with some honourable exceptions) when in the past it had been a lone voice in the desert in the run up to new wars.

Global tectonic plates are shifting, geopolitically and environmentally, as well as in epistemological terms. Conflict indicators and related data are flashing red across the spectrum. This is despite some dreadfully self-centred and Euro-centric, journalistic analyses that suggest violence has permanently declined.

After 20 years of American and NATO occupation, the Taliban takeover in Kabul might seem like a return to a pre-9/11 Afghanistan with a Pakistan-supported regime in power. Yet, 20 years on, fundamental differences present significant difficulties for all the powers in the region.

The revival of a Taliban government in Kabul is a setback for India. The significant political, economic and security equities it had built up in Afghanistan over the past two decades have been wiped out. This includes the more than US$ 3 billion India invested in the country in the shape of several important infrastructure projects, the construction of the country’s parliament building and in the promotion of health and education. India’s contribution to the capacity building of Afghan security forces was substantial.

One joke making the rounds in Kabul’s diplomatic circles these days is that the power transition in Kabul from the Ghani government to that of the Taliban was smoother than the one that took place in Washington D.C. earlier this year. That may be a (slight) exaggeration, but there is little doubt that the swiftness with which the Taliban entered the Afghan capital caught most observers by surprise.