Global Outlook

Myanmar has a history of coups and long periods of military rule. The depth, size and persistence of the protests means a return to civilian control of the government is not an impossibility, but the legacy of past military brutality means indefinite junta rule is also possible.

During the COVID-19 pandemic migration patterns reversed in the Pacific Islands. As paid employment in cities decreased, migration to some rural areas increased, often with en-couragement from national governments. While some migrants have returned to urban areas following an initial rural relocation, even as a temporary phenomenon, urban-rural migration that occurred during the pandemic is instructive for understanding how cultural and family connections to rural places help in maintaining resilience among Pacific Island populations, particularly in the face of external shocks.

This is not an article I had expected, intended or wanted to write. I have politely declined requests to write on the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) in relation to the current crisis in Myanmar and the climbing civilian death toll. The turning point was visuals of people with R2P banners, T-shirts, umbrellas and candle-lit vigils, as in the photo accompanying this article. The images have touched my conscience and should pull at the world’s conscience.

President Trump’s confrontational “Make America Great Again” foreign policy put the United States and its allies on a collision course with each other and with China. It focused far too much diplomatic and public attention on US-China competition and eroded the liberal world order by creating a situation whereby the US itself began questioning its value. It also gave little support to nations and allies interested in finding inclusive solutions to tackle global problems by pitching countries as “for” or “against” major powers. In short, it did little for the advancement of our common interests and generated high levels of mistrust and unpredictability.

Pacific sailors are used to being away from home for months. But this voyage unexpectedly turned out to involve a lot of drama and almost epic frustration. When the pandemic hit, seafarers found themselves stranded almost everywhere. Some were stuck on ships beyond the maximum end of their contracts waiting for fresh crews to arrive and replace them; when they didn’t, the sailors continued working without a break, while others couldn’t go home because of travel restrictions around the globe.

On Friday, 5 March, as the UN Security Council was meeting in its solemn chamber in New York, people across Myanmar held peaceful vigils to protest against the bloody reimposition of military rule in their country. Despite a strict night-time curfew, protesters came into the streets of Yangon and Mandalay to write “We Need R2P” and “R2P – Save Myanmar” in candlelight.