Global Outlook

The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW or the Ban Treaty) exposes the contradictory engagements of umbrella states. Many of them are strong supporters of nuclear disarmament while subscribing to alliance policies that underline the importance of nuclear weapons and sustain nuclear modernisation.

On February 14, 2014, as the Second Conference on the Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons came to an end, conference Chair Juan Manuel Gomez Robledo—then deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Mexico—captured the sentiment in the room in the powerful last few words of his closing remarks: in global efforts toward the elimination of nuclear weapons, this conference marked a “point of no return.” His optimistic conclusion was met with a roar of applause.

Honduras became the 50th country to ratify the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) on 24 October 2020. Ninety days from that date, the ban treaty, as it is popularly called, will enter into force. At a time when arms control treaties are falling by the wayside, this should have been a heartening move. However, despite the landmark event, TPNW is unlikely to achieve its goal of ushering in a nuclear weapons free world (NWFW). While it valiantly outlaws the development, testing, production, manufacture, acquisition, transfer, possession, stockpiling and use or threat of use of nuclear weapons, it presently bans the bomb for those who do not have it!

For many of the Alliance’s members, the last few years have been difficult ones with respect to nuclear policy. The source of the dilemma has been the advent of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) which has presented NATO members with something of a Hobson’s choice. The treaty, which was adopted in July 2017, will enter into force on January 22, 2021 (after reaching its entry into force threshold of 50 ratifications on October 24th). For the first time in global nuclear governance, the TPNW outlaws the possession of nuclear weapons in addition to prohibiting their use or threat of use. It also specifically bans the hosting of any nuclear weapons or related infrastructure on the territory of a state party or the rendering of any “assistance” in contravention of the treaty.

The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) that will enter into force in January 2021 bans nuclear weapons by outlawing a number of practices. These include possessing nuclear weapons, developing, testing, stockpiling, transferring, using, threatening to use, encouraging and stationing them. To understand why the ban on nuclear weapons is a watershed moment in history that will bring about a psychological shift in how people think about nuclear weapons, we have to understand what it means to outlaw something.

The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) unnecessarily has become a bitter bone of contention between the non-nuclear-weapon States (NNWS) supporting this treaty and most of the nuclear-armed States and US allies in defence arrangements underpinned by US nuclear weapons. The opponents of the TPNW have raised a number of concerns and shortcomings relating to the TPNW. This short paper responds to some of these.