Publications and Resources

This report asks how the European security order could be imagined once the fighting in Ukraine has stopped and aims to show that there are alternative and more inclusive scenarios. The end of the Ukraine–Russian war could be a historical turning point. Such moments in history open up the possibility to try to do things better than before. The first part of this paper describes the differences between two fundamentally different types of security constellation: balance of power and collective security. The second part asks, what would a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia look like? The third part addresses the questions, what would the post-war security constellation in Europe be? What role is left for NATO, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and the EU? Where would Ukraine fit in? And what about Russia?

This report assesses democratic degradation in the United States as President Trump's second term marks its first anniversary and proposes a framework for recovery grounded in the sequencing logic of post-conflict peacebuilding. Because established frameworks for re-democratisation in advanced democracies remain underdeveloped, the report adapts insights from a field that has systematically addressed phased institutional reconstruction under conditions of contested authority and diminished public trust. The purpose is to address a shared problem: how to rebuild legitimate institutions when authority is disputed and confidence in governance is profoundly eroded. The result is a three-phase roadmap: preparation under constraint, action during transition windows, and long-term civic renewal. The framework may offer insights for other democracies facing institutional erosion.

This report discusses the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war. To end suffering and destruction in Ukraine it is necessary to stop this war. Pathways to peace are urgently required. So far, several proposals and negotiations have not led to any viable result. In Western Europe and the Ukraine there is great scepticism about the type of negotiations that the US administration orchestrates. The report analyses four possible scenarios: (1) Russia’s military victory, (2) War without end, (3) Escalation, both horizontal and vertical escalation, and (4) Successful negotiations. One intervening factor may be the state of Russia’s War Economy. Can Russia's economy continue to bear the burdens of this war?

This report examines the case of India, where the balance between labour and capital has moved decisively against labour, breaking the back of one of the most potent forces of democratisation. Countries where workers’ unions are hit the hardest by neoliberalism tend to offer the right-wing movements the most fertile ground. India’s broken democracy now points to the emergence of authoritarian neoliberalism—a form of capitalism in which the state joins forces with capital and erodes labour power to fortify despotic rule.