Policy Briefs on Global Challenges to Democracy

This policy brief discusses the systematic retreat of the United States from multilateral institutions which threatens global economic reform, coinciding with China's construction of alternative frameworks and rising great-power bilateralism. This leads to a growing incapacity for shared solutions on development finance, climate action, and tax coordination. The analysis identifies three strategic pathways—institutional evolution, adaptive pluralism, and functional cooperation—to preserve multilateral effectiveness. Success depends on recognising structural power shifts, redefining legitimacy through performance, and rebuilding trust by delivering economic justice. Without credible multilateral reform, global systems face cascading failures including debt crises, proliferating tax havens, and inadequate climate adaptation funding. The moment demands bold, inclusive reform or risks a return to systemic economic instability.

This report discusses the rise of transactionalism in the Gulf states' relations with the US, which is set not only to sideline democratic principles, norms, and institutions within Gulf polities, but also within the wider Arab region. Transactionalism in this context favours close American ties with despotic regimes in the Gulf monarchies. The notion of 'democracy promotion in reverse' is introduced in the elaboration of US–Gulf relations in the Trump 2.0 Era. The foreign policies of these authoritarian regimes seem, with the benefit of hindsight and in the context of Arab Spring reforms, to counteract any notion of transformational politics favouring democratization in the rest of the Arab region.

This report provides a comparative perspective on two crucial questions. First, what are the possibilities that the United States might devolve into what political scientists have called a ‘competitive authoritarian regime’—one in which the façade of democratic institutions obscures the reality of political power that cannot be held to account by either constitutional checks-and-balances or by the electorate itself? Second, to what extent can its institutions recover from the damage incurred under Trump 2.0? Few, if any, ‘recovering’ backsliders have regained the level of democratic quality they had achieved prior to the backsliding episode. A likely scenario is one in which a post-Trump democracy would emerge significantly weaker than it was before.

This policy brief argues that democratic governance must evolve as artificial intelligence becomes embedded in public life, often without transparency or public consent, and as the erosion of democratic processes directly threatens sustainable peace. Drawing on lessons from the 2025 UNDP Human Development Report and the 2024 UN Pact for the Future, this brief offers a framework for democratic digital governance that supports peacebuilding. It proposes five actions: establishing independent oversight bodies with enforcement powers; embedding civic participation in policymaking; expanding critical digital literacy; enforcing the Global Digital Compact; and protecting online civic space. With such measures, AI can enhance human agency, strengthen democratic institutions, and foster sustainable peace.

This policy brief analyses the accelerating trend of human rights regression observed in early 2025 and its implications for global peace and security. Drawing on Human Rights Watch's April 2025 report, "100 Human Rights Harms in 100 Days”, it identifies three interlinked threats: the erosion of democratic institutions, discriminatory policies targeting vulnerable populations, and the deliberate retreat from multilateral frameworks. These developments directly contradict the commitments of the 2024 UN Pact for the Future, which reaffirmed the centrality of human rights to sustainable peace. The brief concludes with strategic imperatives for governments, international organisations, civil society, and funders to reverse current backsliding and restore rights-based approaches to conflict prevention, bridging the growing gap between multilateral aspirations and national realities.