Global Challenges to Democracy
The Return of President Trump and Its Implications for South America
Report No.236 - July, 2025 • By Daniela Campello
This report outlines the significant threat to democratic governance in Latin America posed by Trump’s renewed presidency. His attacks on the rule of law and alignment with authoritarian leaders have emboldened regional allies to weaken oversight institutions, concentrate power, and target vulnerable groups. As US soft power declines and China offers economic engagement without democratic conditions, the region faces growing risks of institutional erosion, deepening polarization both within and between countries, and rising political instability.
Global Challenges to Democracy
From Backsliding to Recalibration? Trump 2.0 and Democracy in the Philippines
Report No.234 - July, 2025 • By Aries A. Arugay
This report analyses the three-fold impact of the Trump 2.0 presidency on Philippine domestic politics, economic sectors, and foreign policy. It argues that Trump’s restoration could reinforce authoritarian tendencies in the Philippines, undermine its economic resilience amid shifting global trade regimes and increasing economic coercion from China, and constrain its capacity for strategic autonomy within a highly volatile, uncertain, and complex international order.
Global Challenges to Democracy
The Gutting of Palestine
Report No.233 - July, 2025 • By Larbi Sadiki and Layla Saleh
This report outlines the paradoxical situation that Gaza finds itself in, at once in the worst position since 1948 with no political clout yet with unparalleled global expressions of solidarity. With geopolitical deadlock and the widening of the conflict, prospects of an end to Israel’s destruction of Gaza are as distant as ever. But momentum for a ceasefire, and even statehood, would likely be stronger were Palestinian political factions not themselves still divided.
Global Challenges to Democracy
Democracy in the 21st Century: Fragility and Resilience
Summary Report No.231 - July, 2025 • By Apolline Foedit
This report summarizes the key discussions and outcomes of the 2025 annual meeting of the Toda Peace Institute’s Global Challenges to Democracy Working Group, held in Geneva on 5–6 June in collaboration with the Centre on Conflict, Development and Peacebuilding (CCDP), Geneva Graduate Institute. The meeting centred on three main themes: the democratic threats posed by Trump’s second presidency, strategies for strengthening democratic resilience, and the Toda Peace Institute’s contributions to this effort —particularly through the Democracy Lighthouse platform. The report captures the group’s shared concerns over democratic backsliding and outlines ongoing initiatives, including a systems map of democratic erosion, research on democratic resilience, and case studies on India and the MENA region.
Global Challenges to Democracy
America's Retreat and the Future of Economic Multilateralism
Policy Brief No.230 - July, 2025 • By Jordan Ryan
This policy brief discusses the systematic retreat of the United States from multilateral institutions which threatens global economic reform, coinciding with China's construction of alternative frameworks and rising great-power bilateralism. This leads to a growing incapacity for shared solutions on development finance, climate action, and tax coordination. The analysis identifies three strategic pathways—institutional evolution, adaptive pluralism, and functional cooperation—to preserve multilateral effectiveness. Success depends on recognising structural power shifts, redefining legitimacy through performance, and rebuilding trust by delivering economic justice. Without credible multilateral reform, global systems face cascading failures including debt crises, proliferating tax havens, and inadequate climate adaptation funding. The moment demands bold, inclusive reform or risks a return to systemic economic instability.