Policy Briefs on Peace and Security in Northeast Asia

This policy brief seeks to answer a critical question: What kind of reassurance can Taiwan give to Mainland China, and vice versa? It also points out two important questions with preliminary answers: What could be the reassurance measures given by major stakeholders in the region, and is reassurance possible given the identity politics in Taiwan and Mainland China? The brief first discusses the term ‘reassurance’ with reference to theoretical literature, then analyzes the recent deterioration of cross-strait relations, with no Track I dialogue, very little official communication, and a military standoff. Next, the brief provides a list with examples of possible reassurance measures that could be taken by the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. Before concluding, the brief argues that United States’ influence and the impact of Taiwan’s identity politics need further discussion.

This policy brief examines the rise of the Sanseito and the Japan Conservative Party in the July 2025 Japanese Senate elections, through three key lenses: (1) public discontent with the LDP and the fragmentation of the conservative base, (2) external factors driving nationalist sentiment amid a deteriorating security environment, and (3) internal factors, including economic stagnation and rising anti-foreigner sentiment. By analyzing these dynamics, we aim to illuminate the broader political and social implications of this electoral shift.

This report identifies the scope for reassurance measures in the Taiwan Strait dispute. At a time when tensions in the Taiwan Strait are high, the positions of the parties remain incompatible, military preparations are ramping up, and there is no official dialogue between the parties. The Toda Peace Institute convened a research group to identify how the parties could shift from relying on deterrence to putting more emphasis on reassurance. The aim was to identify which reassurance measures the main parties seek from others, and what reassurances they can offer to others. This report summarises the main conclusions of the papers and discussions and provides an overview of the potential contribution of reassurance measures to peace and stability in the region.

This report analyses the origins of the conflicts between India and Pakistan, and traces the different phases of wars, terrorist attacks, and the diplomatic rapprochements that repeatedly failed. The military potentials of the opponent are compared and the author asks what the future might look like after the recent military confrontations. The countless efforts to resolve the conflict, both bilaterally between the two hostile neighbours and internationally, have repeatedly failed for almost 80 years. The attempt to find a way out of the impasse with confidence-building measures also failed. The persistent tensions in the Kashmir Valley serve as a reminder of how some conflicts remain unresolved despite repeated attempts at negotiation and intervention.

This Policy Brief argues that the conflict over Taiwan’s status is not primarily driven by geopolitics or considerations for power. It is a struggle between rivalling national identities, reinforced by compelling historical narratives. This means that peace cannot be preserved by just mutual deterrence. Strategic reassurance, with a basis in respect for each other’s identity, may provide the key to preventing escalation to armed conflict. Reassurance complements deterrence by addressing the underlying identity fears. It sends the message that China’s national rejuvenation, Taiwan’s democratic survival, and US global leadership can all be maintained without war. Strategic reassurance reduces the existential cost of restraint, making compromise and coexistence politically and psychologically feasible.