Policy Briefs on Peace and Security in Northeast Asia

This is a report on an international workshop held in Beijing, convened by Toda Peace Institute and the Institute of Japanese Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (IJSCASS). The workshop suggested that, so long as the states in the East Asian region act responsibly, avoid confrontation, exercise restraint, tolerate diverse development paths and reassure one another, it should be possible to preserve and even to deepen the East Asian peace. However, the long peace is threatened by the deteriorating international environment and rivalry between the United States and China. Mistrust between China, Korea and Japan and their failure to achieve reconciliation hamper efforts to establish a common security framework in East Asia. In this context, the workshop aimed to build collaborative relationships between scholars and policymakers, encourage dialogue, and identify promising multilateral approaches to the region’s challenges.

This is a Summary Report of discussion at an international study group hosted by Toda Peace Institute in November 2023. The meeting brought together Chinese, Korean, Japanese, Mongolian and international scholars and diplomats, to discuss the prospects for stable peace in Northeast Asia. There is a sense that the world is at an inflection point and Northeast Asia is a site where these choices are particularly stark. There are large potential gains from cooperation and very large potential losses from conflict. The Toda Peace Institute convened this meeting with the aim of exploring ways to avoid violent conflict between China and the US and its allies and to advance cooperation in the region.

This Policy Brief discusses the security situation in the Korean peninsula which is going from bad to worse. However, despite bellicose words, changes in military doctrine and posture, and harsh verbal exchanges, “war by a premeditated plan” is not imminent. What is troubling is the potential for accidental military clashes between the two Koreas and the escalation into a limited or full-blown conflict involving nuclear weapons. A sequence of accidental clashes, crisis escalation, and war might appear rational at each incremental step until the conflict spirals entirely out of control. Such a sequence must be avoided at any cost. What measures are needed?

This Policy Brief examines an anomaly taking place in international politics: the rise of Indo-Pacific geopolitical thinking, abruptly replacing the discourse constructed around the concept of the Asia-Pacific that has persisted for years. As the United States and Japan have initiated the Indo-Pacific strategy, policymakers and scholars in India, South Korea, Australia and most European countries have uncritically accepted the transition to an Indo-Pacific era without any substantial debate about its appropriateness. In the sense of what the philosopher and historian Thomas Kuhn called a paradigm shift, it is quite incomprehensible, because the Asia-Pacific paradigm is still alive and well.

This Policy Brief, first published in the East Asia Forum, summarises the history and reviews the current position of the countries which took part in the Six-Party Talks. It concludes with the presentation of a possible way forward and an assessment of the cooperation necessary for progress to be made. Denuclearising North Korea is a perilous odyssey. Pragmatic attitudes coupled with multilateral arrangements can serve as a useful guide to navigating that odyssey.