Policy Briefs on Climate Change and Conflict

This report examines the historic advisory opinion delivered by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on July 23, 2025. The opinion reframes climate change as not just an environmental challenge, but a defining issue for human rights and global security. Sparked by the voices of Pacific youth and the lived realities of vulnerable nations, the ICJ’s opinion sends a clear message: climate action is now a legal obligation, not a policy preference. The advisory opinion is a watershed moment. It lays a powerful legal foundation for climate action rooted in justice, cooperation, and human security. But legal clarity is just the beginning. Real progress means weaving these principles into policy, practice, and everyday decisions—especially for those most at risk. The ICJ ruling offers a vision of climate protection as the bedrock of sustainable peace and security for generations to come.

This report examines the climate–security nexus through the lens of Germany’s experience, offering insights that are increasingly relevant to global responses. It synthesizes findings from Germany’s National Interdisciplinary Climate Risk Assessment which categorizes climate risks into direct, global, and systemic impacts. The paper also looks toward the future, exploring how insights from the assessment can contribute to discussions at the upcoming COP30. By aligning their efforts, countries can strengthen resilience, foster equitable development, and advance a global response to the intertwined crises of climate and security. In a world where environmental risks transcend borders, this dialogue is not just relevant—it is essential.

This summary report details the discussions, key themes and insights, key learnings, and a roadmap for action that came out of a July 2025 workshop, convened by Toda Peace Institute, adelphi, and ASPI’s Climate & Security Policy Centre in Canberra, Australia. Titled 'Advancing Climate, Peace, Security, and Geopolitical Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region', the workshop addressed the underexplored nexus of climate, peace, and security in Asia and the Pacific. The aim of the workshop was to drive a conversation on priorities and solutions to connect global approaches to climate, peace, and security with regional experts and institutional representatives from across Asia and the Pacific. This helped identify opportunities to generate concrete, region-grounded policy and program options linking climate, peace, and security.

This report examines the impact of the executive orders, issued by President Trump since taking office on 20 January 2025, which reject the decarbonization policies pursued by the Biden administration. President Trump’s policies, such as withdrawing again from the Paris Agreement and promoting increased fossil fuel production, run counter to the trend toward decarbonization, have run roughshod over democracy and will have a major negative impact on climate action, not only in the United States but throughout the world. Other governments must maintain the global trend toward decarbonization, implement effective policies domestically, and rebuild an international partnership framework to complement the U.S. withdrawal, through re-enforcing multilateralism and a coalition of the willing.

This policy brief, based on new data and analysis published by the author in the Afghanistan Analysts Network, outlines Afghanistan’s escalating economic losses due to climate change and mounting adaptation costs, institutional constraints, and possible financing pathways. Fragile governance, limited fiscal space, and international non-recognition have restricted access to climate finance, forcing the country to rely on declining humanitarian aid. It argues that, without targeted international action, Afghanistan may become a harbinger of climate injustice and systemic failure in fragile states. The brief concludes with seven policy recommendations.