Policy Briefs on Climate Change and Conflict

This summary report details the discussions, key themes and insights, key learnings, and a roadmap for action that came out of a July 2025 workshop, convened by Toda Peace Institute, adelphi, and ASPI’s Climate & Security Policy Centre in Canberra, Australia. Titled 'Advancing Climate, Peace, Security, and Geopolitical Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region', the workshop addressed the underexplored nexus of climate, peace, and security in Asia and the Pacific. The aim of the workshop was to drive a conversation on priorities and solutions to connect global approaches to climate, peace, and security with regional experts and institutional representatives from across Asia and the Pacific. This helped identify opportunities to generate concrete, region-grounded policy and program options linking climate, peace, and security.

This report examines the impact of the executive orders, issued by President Trump since taking office on 20 January 2025, which reject the decarbonization policies pursued by the Biden administration. President Trump’s policies, such as withdrawing again from the Paris Agreement and promoting increased fossil fuel production, run counter to the trend toward decarbonization, have run roughshod over democracy and will have a major negative impact on climate action, not only in the United States but throughout the world. Other governments must maintain the global trend toward decarbonization, implement effective policies domestically, and rebuild an international partnership framework to complement the U.S. withdrawal, through re-enforcing multilateralism and a coalition of the willing.

This policy brief, based on new data and analysis published by the author in the Afghanistan Analysts Network, outlines Afghanistan’s escalating economic losses due to climate change and mounting adaptation costs, institutional constraints, and possible financing pathways. Fragile governance, limited fiscal space, and international non-recognition have restricted access to climate finance, forcing the country to rely on declining humanitarian aid. It argues that, without targeted international action, Afghanistan may become a harbinger of climate injustice and systemic failure in fragile states. The brief concludes with seven policy recommendations.

This report will offer an alternative way of approaching the climate crisis from a Pasifika relational itulagi. It offers the story of Pasifika communities as they understand the climate crisis through the lens of their own ways of knowing and being and why such is critical to reforming climate policies and strategies. It will provide some examples of how communities deal with issues and crises at the communities-based level from an ethical and relational itulagi, and also highlights why spirituality has to be the key to the climate discourse. When we miss spirituality, we miss understanding in depth the integrated multidimensional structure of communities, which could consequently lead to a misrepresentation of the Pasifika household in climate discourse.

This policy brief specifically examines two international migration pathways for Tuvaluans: one forthcoming and one proposed, for how well they align with Tuvalu’s goal of ensuring Tuvaluan self-determination and sovereignty in-situ. Climate change poses a habitability risk to Tuvalu associated with sea-level rise, A forthcoming migration pathway, between Tuvalu and Australia under the new Tuvalu-Australia Falepili Union Treaty is partially in harmony with Tuvaluan sovereignty. The second, the suggestion by Rising Nations Initiative to relocate the entire national population of Tuvalu does not harmonise well with the goal of maintaining Tuvaluan sovereignty in place. By way of conclusion, the paper will put forward a recommendation for international partners to focus on helping climate vulnerable communities manage their habitability risk, rather than prioritise movement away in contravention of sovereignty and self-determined visions of a communities’ own future.