Policy Briefs on Cooperative Security, Arms Control and Disarmament

This is the Summary Report of a conference convened by Toda Peace Institute against the backdrop of the American–Russian relationship—and with it the nuclear arms control regime—which is in tatters, existing agreements such as New START set to expire in February 2026 and no concrete follow-up on the horizon. There are proliferation concerns from North Korea, Iran, and elsewhere, while debates over non-nuclear postures in Europe and Asia increasingly threaten the future of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Meanwhile, the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons reflects the ongoing desire for a nuclear-free world but also highlights the lack of progress on long-standing promises. The conference aimed to explore preconditions for incremental progress in arms control, risk reduction, and confidence-building measures, and identify potential entry points for innovative global, regional, or national initiatives.

This report discusses the US’ audacious actions in Venezuela on 3 January 2026 which could be considered a full-frontal challenge to the Westphalian world. The author explains why the US action deserves one, but only one of the traditional three cheers; an amber warning light instead of the second cheer; and possibly even a jeer as the final reaction. Based on the three-part argument, the report concludes by raising the possibility that the US coup in Venezuela might have driven the final nail in the coffin of the liberal international order.

This policy brief documents the framework of agreements and arms control arrangements which have hitherto restrained actions of the nuclear powers. Since the end of the Cold War, political leaders and the public have become complacent about the danger of nuclear war. While the taboo against the use of nuclear weapons has held, the nuclear-armed states have ignored their moral and legal obligation to pursue nuclear arms reductions and disarmament. The policy brief concludes by suggesting actions that could be taken to revitalize and extend nuclear arms controls globally and regionally.

This report states that the spread of nuclear weapons to a total of nine countries today, and the spell they cast on the leaders and scientists of many other countries who are enchanted by the magic of the bomb, rests on several mutually reinforcing myths. The author outlines these myths and the five paradoxes which set the context for the global nuclear arms control agenda. The possession of nuclear weapons by nine countries leaves the world exposed to the risk of sleepwalking into a nuclear disaster. A more rational and prudent approach to reducing nuclear risks would be to actively advocate and pursue the minimisation, reduction, and elimination agendas for the short, medium, and long terms.

This policy brief backgrounds the killing of 26 domestic tourists in Pahalgam, Kashmir by terrorists in April 2025 and the subsequent Operation Sindoor launched by India on alleged terrorist and military targets in Pakistan. It draws comparisons with the Israel-Palestine conflict, and concludes with recommendations for both India and Pakistan to work towards normalising bilateral relationships, and for international actors such as the United Nations to encourage efforts to shift the balance towards more peace and less violence.