Future Prospects for the Eurasian Security Order
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Geopolitical rivalries and high levels of conflict and tension characterise the contemporary European and global security order, in a period of radical global uncertainty. The war in Ukraine drags on, arms control and disarmament treaties have been almost fully dismantled, and existing formal and informal institutions, security arrangements and treaties are no longer ‘fit for purpose’ to meet these challenges, whether it be NATO, the UN Security Council, multilateral peace operations, sanctions regimes, or arms control and disarmament treaty arrangements. The Eurasian security order, anchored around the concept of cooperative security and institutions such as the OSCE, is in tatters.
These developments affect the prospects for cooperative security in Europe and beyond. The logic of geopolitics, ‘deterrence and defence’ and increased military spending is dominant, with established ideas to promote cooperative, human or sustainable security, as well as the control of arms and the means of violence, are pushed to the background.
In this context, this project focuses on thinking ‘forward’ to what could be the central elements of a renewed ‘Europe and its neighbourhood’ security architecture, the role that could be played by different institutions and arrangements, and the scope of arms control and disarmament and confidence and security-building arrangements, in the medium-term future. The objective is to identify entry points for ‘geopolitically informed peace promoting’ ideas, policies and security arrangements. Questions to be tackled range from future prospects for arms control and risk reduction, to the more conceptual issues (security architectures and arrangements), and broader conflict and violence prevention strategies.