The Appeal and Futile Quest for Escalation Dominance

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This report discusses the futile quest for escalation dominance in the context of the Russia–Ukraine and USA–Iran wars. Wars are generally started because at least one of the adversaries is convinced of a military victory. While military planners usually design detailed procedures for the start of a war, the power to terminate wars is typically lacking and often opponents blunder into a quagmire. The central strategic concept behind this behaviour is escalation and the belief in escalation dominance. Escalation in armed conflicts frequently spirals toward acute brinkmanship, because one or both warring parties anticipate success from further escalation. In doing so, however, they do not necessarily consider the risks associated with a spiral of escalation.