Has World War III Already Begun?

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The growing number of armed conflicts and deteriorating relations among major powers have revived speculation about a third world war. Yet neither international law nor conflict research provides an agreed definition of world war. This paper examines the historical origins of the two world wars, the changing character of contemporary warfare and the conditions under which separate conflicts might become strategically integrated. It distinguishes the probability of simultaneous confrontations from the more demanding conditions required for systemic global war. The evidence does not suggest that World War III has begun. It does, however, indicate that the mechanisms through which regional conflicts could reinforce one another are becoming more consequential. It identifies the warning signs of this convergence and the opportunities for governments to prevent it.