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An Eye on Arab De-democratization

An Eye on Arab De-democratization

Image: Walter G Allgower/Imagebroker/Shutterstock

The Arab region (interchangeably Middle East and North Africa – MENA) has had a chequered history with democratization. Evidently, today, the trend is not one of democratic transition but rather one of ‘autocratization’, i.e. of democratic de-consolidation. Authoritarian backlash is one marker of those states that for a while spearheaded what seemed after the 2011 uprisings to be a promising shift from singular brands of rule (Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia and Yemen) to a form of electoral and competitive politics. The reports, “An Eye on Arab De-democratization,” seek to capture the nature of democratic erosion in a MENA Arab cluster of nine countries and one case study that covers the gender question in relation to ‘democratization’.  What is challenging to evidence is to explain how such trends have unfolded over the past decade. How do these early reforms erode? How do the functions of the democratic institutions which are created to lend credence to democratization processes atrophy? How do thereafter Arab regimes attempt to mimic participatory and competitive politics reminiscent of historical equivalents that were ousted in the 2011 uprisings? The policy reports try to survey evidence that address these key questions, whilst highlighting for readers and students of MENA democratization tentative explanations and features of Arab ‘democratic backsliding’.

Policy Brief and Reports

The Arab Spring Rollback and Varieties of Arab ‘Autocratization’

February 17, 2026

The Arab Spring Rollback and Varieties of Arab ‘Autocratization’

Larbi Sadiki

Toda Peace Institute presents a report series, “An Eye on Arab De-democratization,” that seeks to capture the nature of democratic erosion in a MENA Arab cluster of nine countries plus one case study covering the…

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Arab Women’s Inclusiveness: Navigating Terrains of De-Democratization and Conflict

February 17, 2026

Arab Women’s Inclusiveness: Navigating Terrains of De-Democratization and Conflict

Layla Saleh

This paper surveys the landscape of women’s inclusion in Arab politics since 2011 and to analyze the status of gender relations in Arab authoritarian domestic politics. It identifies three interrelated trends that have variously unfolded…

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Policy Challenges to Democratization in the Occupied Palestinian Territory

February 17, 2026

Policy Challenges to Democratization in the Occupied Palestinian Territory

Hanan Kaoud

This paper contends that the future of Palestinian governance requires more than technocratic fixes. Palestine is increasingly besieged, externally by the genocidal campaign in Gaza and the enduring Israeli colonial control over the Occupied Palestinian…

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An Eye on Moroccan Democratization: Towards an Adaptation?

February 17, 2026

An Eye on Moroccan Democratization: Towards an Adaptation?

Aisha Kadaoui

This report evaluates the implications of Morocco’s political trajectory, arguing that it represents a form of adaptive governance rather than substantive democratization. It highlights Morocco’s specific model of managed pluralism, in which periodic multiparty elections…

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Egypt’s Divided Political Society and ‘Loyal Opposition’

February 24, 2026

Egypt’s Divided Political Society and ‘Loyal Opposition’

Mohammed Moussa

This report analyses Egypt’s opposition, which has failed to rise up to the challenge of being a democratic force in the country’s politics. Horizontal solidarity and mounting challenges to incumbent governments are currently missing components…

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Iraq’s Precarious Political System: Consociationalism and Permanent Crisis

February 24, 2026

Iraq’s Precarious Political System: Consociationalism and Permanent Crisis

Khalil Fadl Osman

This report examines Iraq’s post-Saddam Hussein political order, a consociational arrangement known as muhasasah, or the apportionment of power resources among the country’s ethno-sectarian groups. Designed to accommodate societal diversity, muhasasah has become a fundamental…

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Afghanistan’s Pastoral Crisis: A Blind Spot in Humanitarian, Development and Policy Frameworks

February 7, 2026

Afghanistan’s Pastoral Crisis: A Blind Spot in Humanitarian, Development and Policy Frameworks

Muhammad Khurshid

This policy brief argues that the continued exclusion of Afghan pastoralists from humanitarian, development and national policy frameworks represents a critical policy failure with regional consequences extending to Pakistan, Iran, and Central Asia. Drawing on…

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On the Erosion of Tunisia’s Once-Promising Democratisation Experiment

February 24, 2026

On the Erosion of Tunisia’s Once-Promising Democratisation Experiment

Moncef Khaddar

This report aims to examine the process of Tunisia’s autocratisation, which continues to reverse the gains from the 2011 Arab Spring. With receding civic freedoms and the rising tide of populist politics, there does not…

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Democratic Backsliding in Mauritania: Challenges and Trends

March 3, 2026

Democratic Backsliding in Mauritania: Challenges and Trends

Ahmedou Menna

This report examines recent political developments in Mauritania which show signs of democratic backsliding, with increasing restrictions on political freedoms and declining public trust in political institutions. In recent years, the country has witnessed attempts…

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Lebanon’s Democratization: The Impasse of Political Parties Reform

March 3, 2026

Lebanon’s Democratization: The Impasse of Political Parties Reform

Dania Koleilat Khatib, Amine Bashir

This report focuses on the impasse of legal and political reform in Lebanon, with special reference to political parties. It examines some of the chief challenges Lebanon’s political parties face in a fragile and sectarian…

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A New Syria in a ‘New Middle East’: Challenges and Opportunities for Democratization

March 3, 2026

A New Syria in a ‘New Middle East’: Challenges and Opportunities for Democratization

Larbi Sadiki, Layla Saleh

This report seeks to chart the political transition and the prospects for pluralist, if not democratic, rule in a situation that remains very much in flux since the fall of the Assad regime in Syria…

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Yemen: An Aborted Democratic Dream

March 3, 2026

Yemen: An Aborted Democratic Dream

Nabil Al-Bukairi

This report analyses the challenges in Yemen which has for fourteen years suffered from the problem of aborted democratization. This is aggravated by acute and continuous state failure. After a discussion of state fragility since…

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