How to de-risk a lexical change that represents dangerous trends: fragmentation, decoupling and confrontation.

When following the news over the past three years, one might get the impression that the world is living through a permanent state of crisis. While climate change is arguably the most important challenge of our time, headlines were frequently dominated by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of the Ukraine, and more recently skyrocketing energy and food prices.

German-Chinese relations are currently being reassessed in Germany. The shock of Germany's dependence on Russian gas, coal and oil supplies has made relations with China particularly sensitive. Germany is not only highly dependent on Russian raw materials and fossil fuels but is also economically more closely interlinked with China: China ranks second in Germany's exports and number one in imports. But is it possible to reduce economic dependency at all and how far should a possible decoupling go?

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has blamed the West for fomenting the widespread unrest that has rocked Iran over the past few weeks. But his claim is no longer heeded. The ranks of the protestors have swelled despite the authorities’ forceful crackdown. The Islamic regime faces its worst legitimacy crisis since its advent in the wake of the revolution of 1978–79 that toppled the pro-Western autocracy of Mohammad Reza Shah.

As the world marks the anniversary of the 9/11 terror attacks this weekend, two other events should be remembered. Afghan commander Ahmad Shah Massoud was assassinated on 9 September 2001 by al-Qaeda agents, two days before the attacks on New York and Washington. Massoud had fought Soviet forces in Afghanistan in the 1980s and the Taliban and al-Qaeda alliance in the following decade. The other event in this bleak trio is the Taliban’s reassumption of power in the wake of the US and allied retreat from Afghanistan a year ago. Together they explain the mess that is Afghanistan today.

One year on, the Taliban’s rule in Afghanistan continues to be marked by extremist brutality in the name of Islam and defiance of the UN-led international demand for an inclusive government and respect for human rights. The group has not been accorded global recognition and the Afghan people are in the midst of the worst humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan’s modern history. The country’s future prospects have never been so bleak.