The defeat of the United States and its allies and return to power of the Taliban in Afghanistan have changed the regional landscape. The configuration of forces has shifted in favour of Pakistan as the Taliban’s patron and China as a strategic partner of Pakistan, confronting India, the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Central Asian Republics and the main power behind them, Russia, with certain policy quandaries. Yet not all is lost, as both Islamabad and Beijing may find that Afghanistan is a very difficult country to govern and sustain.

With ANZUS having turned 70, how does New Zealand view the Treaty today? In political opinion, virtually not at all; in terms of its legal, strategic and cultural context, the answer is more complex and nuanced.

Peace as a research topic and as a practice has never received as much attention and funding. University classes on peace and related topics are in rude health. There is a constant stream of academic and policy papers on peace, and there is now a very substantial international cadre of ‘peace professionals’ working for international organisations and international non-governmental organisations. In short, it is a good time to be in the peace business.

The return to power of the Pakistan-orchestrated Taliban has dashed any prospect for the transformation of Afghanistan into a stable, secure and peaceful state in the foreseeable future. The Taliban’s newly formed interim cabinet leaves no room for a majority of the Afghan people and the international community to legitimise it as politically and ethically acceptable. Afghanistan is now potentially positioned as a pariah state.

The disaster of a twenty-year Afghanistan policy is complete. The West is facing the broken pieces of its policies and the future of Afghanistan, with the Taliban in power, is uncertain. The situation is so complex that it is difficult to find convincing answers to the many open questions.

The US and the German governments just agreed on a compromise about the controversial and long-debated Nord Stream 2 pipeline that is planned to supply natural gas from Russia to Germany. The supply of natural gas by Russia is not new.