Policy Briefs and Reports

To prevent any unintended military conflict and provide reassurance over Taiwan, it is essential for all parties to acknowledge the Taiwan military as a legitimate ‘military entity’ and establish communication frameworks among regional forces. Despite political sensitivities, Taiwan’s military presence is a reality. Treating Taiwan as a military entity is not a matter of sovereignty but of practical security. Any conflict between China and Taiwan would have catastrophic consequences for the international community, with Japan and neighbouring countries directly affected. History has shown that wars often stem from miscommunication and misjudgement; therefore, Japan must lead efforts to promote dialogue and build mutual trust, laying the foundation for lasting reassurance and regional stability.

This policy brief seeks to answer a critical question: What kind of reassurance can Taiwan give to Mainland China, and vice versa? It also points out two important questions with preliminary answers: What could be the reassurance measures given by major stakeholders in the region, and is reassurance possible given the identity politics in Taiwan and Mainland China? The brief first discusses the term ‘reassurance’ with reference to theoretical literature, then analyzes the recent deterioration of cross-strait relations, with no Track I dialogue, very little official communication, and a military standoff. Next, the brief provides a list with examples of possible reassurance measures that could be taken by the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. Before concluding, the brief argues that United States’ influence and the impact of Taiwan’s identity politics need further discussion.

This policy brief examines the rise of the Sanseito and the Japan Conservative Party in the July 2025 Japanese Senate elections, through three key lenses: (1) public discontent with the LDP and the fragmentation of the conservative base, (2) external factors driving nationalist sentiment amid a deteriorating security environment, and (3) internal factors, including economic stagnation and rising anti-foreigner sentiment. By analyzing these dynamics, we aim to illuminate the broader political and social implications of this electoral shift.

This report identifies the scope for reassurance measures in the Taiwan Strait dispute. At a time when tensions in the Taiwan Strait are high, the positions of the parties remain incompatible, military preparations are ramping up, and there is no official dialogue between the parties. The Toda Peace Institute convened a research group to identify how the parties could shift from relying on deterrence to putting more emphasis on reassurance. The aim was to identify which reassurance measures the main parties seek from others, and what reassurances they can offer to others. This report summarises the main conclusions of the papers and discussions and provides an overview of the potential contribution of reassurance measures to peace and stability in the region.