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Policy Briefs

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Latest Policy Briefs and Reports

Cooperative Security, Arms Control and Disarmament

The NPT, the TPNW and the Future of Arms Control and Disarmament After Ukraine

Summary Report  No.135 - August, 2022 • By Hugh Miall

A June 2022 international workshop of experts and diplomats concluded that the assumptions on which nuclear deterrence are based need to be challenged, and the dogma that nuclear deterrence will always be effective should be questioned. Held to coincide with the First Meeting of States Parties to the TPNW, the workshop noted that civil society and like-minded states have so far worked together to make progress on the TPNW and must continue to do so. The workshop which was convened by Toda Peace Institute and the Vienna Centre for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, gave particular attention to the impact of the war in Ukraine on the perceived value of nuclear deterrence, and the relationship of the TPNW to other treaties and political alliances.

Cooperative Security, Arms Control and Disarmament

Managing the China, India and Pakistan Nuclear Trilemma

Policy Brief  No.134 - July, 2022 • By Tanvi Kulkarni

In 2021, the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament (APLN) and the Toda Peace Institute launched a research project examining the nuclear and defence dynamics between China, India, and Pakistan. Building on previous APLN papers and the Brookings ‘Strategic Chain’ report, this project seeks to map the contours of the China-India-Pakistan nuclear relationship, identifying the key drivers of conflict, as well as practical nuclear risk reduction, crisis stability, and confidence building measures. The project also aims to explore the possibility of a nuclear restraint regime that includes all three countries. At a workshop organised by the project in February 2022, experts from the Indo-Pacific region, including from China, India, and Pakistan, presented scholarly and policy analyses on the trilateral dynamics in Southern Asia. This report synthesises the analysis from those discussions.

Mapping The Emerging Strategic Stability And Arms Control Landscape

Policy Brief  No.133 - July, 2022 • By Andrew Futter

We are living in an era of transition and uncertainty in the global nuclear order where nuclear security and nuclear risks are changing and the ways, ends and means devised to manage the nuclear condition are under pressure. This is the result of a technological, geopolitical and normative change and transformation across the nuclear ecosystem. Taken together, these developments are calling into question the way that we manage nuclear threats, and particularly how we think about strategic stability and arms control. While there have been periods of unsettling, rapid, and potentially revolutionary change in the global nuclear order in the past, today appears to be different because the phenomenon is so wide-spread, multifaceted, and because the challenges go right to the heart of how we think about and conceptualise the nuclear condition.

Climate Change and Conflict

Climate Change, Population Mobility and Relocation in Oceania, Part II: Origins, Destinations and Community Relocation

Policy Brief  No.132 - July, 2022 • By John R. Campbell

This is the second Policy Brief on the issues of climate change and population mobility (and immobility) in Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs). Following the outline of concepts and key considerations in Part I, this Policy Brief begins with an examination of existing and possible future origins and destinations of climate change associated mobility. Attention then turns more specifically to existing experiences and possible expectations of mobility, especially community relocation, in Oceania. It then considers the issue of immobility and draws attention to gender issues that will need to be addressed in community relocation planning and implementation.

Climate Change and Conflict

Climate Change, Population Mobility and Relocation in Oceania, Part I: Background and Concepts

Policy Brief  No.131 - July, 2022 • By John R. Campbell

The issue of migration triggered or driven by climate change has become the focus of a massive increase in research and publications over the last decade or so. Initially it was an issue that was framed in negative terms but recently, much more nuanced understandings of the links between climate change and human population mobility have emerged. This Policy Brief reviews the literature on climate change and human mobility, with reference to Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs). The review will briefly outline the types of environmentally influenced migration, discuss the various ‘theories’ on climate change and mobility, review the importance of land in relation to mobility in PICTs before examining historical and contemporary cases of climate change mobility. It is followed by Part II which examines existing and possible future origins and destinations of climate change associated mobility as well as the issue of immobility.