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Latest Policy Briefs and Reports
Arab Women’s Inclusiveness: Navigating Terrains of De-Democratization and Conflict
Report No.276 - February, 2026 • By Layla Saleh
This paper surveys the landscape of women’s inclusion in Arab politics since 2011 and to analyze the status of gender relations in Arab authoritarian domestic politics. It identifies three interrelated trends that have variously unfolded across the region: the general retreat in women’s bottom-up mobilization, a separation between women’s political leadership and the democratic question, and the increased insecurity of women in settings besieged by conflict. The paper concludes with some recommendations for local/regional civil society and international allies seeking to enhance Arab women’s substantive political inclusion and participation in zones of de-democratization and violent conflict.
The Arab Spring Rollback and Varieties of Arab ‘Autocratization’
Report No.275 - February, 2026 • By Larbi Sadiki
Toda Peace Institute presents a report series, “An Eye on Arab De-democratization,” that seeks to capture the nature of democratic erosion in a MENA Arab cluster of nine countries plus one case study covering the gender question in relation to ‘democratization’. The Arab region (interchangeably Middle East and North Africa – MENA) has had a chequered history with democratization. Evidently, today, the trend is not one of democratic transition but rather one of ‘autocratization’, i.e. of democratic de-consolidation. The report series will be published over the next three weeks, beginning with this Introduction, the case studyon Arab women, and reports on Palestine and Morocco.
Climate Change and Conflict Contemporary Peace Research and Practice
When Growth Becomes a Peace and Security Risk
Policy Brief No.274 - February, 2026 • By Jordan Ryan
This policy brief argues that the persistence of GDP as the organising framework for economic policy is not merely a measurement problem but a governance failure with direct consequences for peace and security. Growth models that reward environmental destruction, deepen inequality within national societies, and misprice systemic risk generate the structural conditions for instability. The Beyond GDP initiative launched under United Nations auspices represents a threshold moment. The brief examines how GDP-centred economic paradigms undermine conflict prevention, resilience, and early warning capacity, and concludes with policy recommendations centred on the development of a single composite wellbeing measure to be reported alongside GDP, together with targeted proposals for multilateral institutions, national governments, and the peacebuilding community.
Cooperative Security, Arms Control and Disarmament
China’s Expanding Arms Control Agenda and East Asian Security
Policy Brief No.273 - February, 2026 • By Sabine Mokry
This policy brief argues that the first standalone arms control white paper released by China in two decades positions China less as a participant in traditional arms-reduction frameworks and more as a rule-shaper in future security governance. The document signals a more assertive Chinese approach to arms control, combining long-standing principles such as no-first-use and UN-centred multilateralism with an expanded focus on emerging domains including artificial intelligence, cyberspace, and outer space. The brief assesses the implications of China’s approach for regional stability and outlines practical options for governments, international organisations, and civil society to engage China on arms control while mitigating escalation risks.
Afghanistan’s Pastoral Crisis: A Blind Spot in Humanitarian, Development and Policy Frameworks
Report No.272 - February, 2026 • By Muhammad Khurshid
This policy brief argues that the continued exclusion of Afghan pastoralists from humanitarian, development and national policy frameworks represents a critical policy failure with regional consequences extending to Pakistan, Iran, and Central Asia. Drawing on socio-political and ecological evidence, the brief demonstrates that pastoralists' marginalization undermines the pastoral economy, food security, fuels intercommunal conflict and exposes them to greater risks across border. It calls for the structured integration of pastoralist-responsive approaches that promote pastoralism as a viable and resilient livelihood system in Afghanistan.