Policy Briefs and Reports | Toda Peace Institute

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Latest Policy Briefs and Reports

Prospects for Japan’s US and China Diplomacy in the Post-Ishiba Era

Policy Brief No.250 - October, 2025 • By Daiju Wada

This policy brief aims to assess the likely diplomatic trajectories of Japan in the post-Ishiba era. The outcome of the 4 October LDP leadership election will not only mark a turning point in domestic politics but also significantly impact Japan’s core diplomatic relations with the United States and China. The brief evaluates how the choice of centrist vs. hardline conservative orientations will affect Japan’s relations with China, the United States, and the broader region.

Peace and Security in Northeast Asia

Sanseitō, Moral Education, and the Future of Japan’s Civil–Military Relations

Policy Brief No.249 - October, 2025 • By Davide Campagnola

This policy brief analyses the rise of Sanseitō and the implications of its agenda for Japan’s civil-military relations. It argues that the party’s push to elevate moral education, revise the constitution, and centralize the military command directly threatens the civil–military balance. The convergence of generational change, worsening security perceptions, and rising nationalist sentiment has made large segments of the Japanese public, especially youth, more receptive to Sanseitō’s message. This trajectory risks undermining civil–military relations by eroding civilian control and enabling the militarization of education. The brief concludes by outlining policy recommendations to reinforce civilian supremacy over the military, support civil society’s watchdog role, and mitigate political polarization.

Slumdogs and the Millionaire: What a Project to Transform Mumbai Says About India’s Democracy

Report No.248 - September, 2025 • By Debasish Roy Chowdhury

This report investigates why a mega slum redevelopment executed by Narendra Modi’s key business ally has triggered political opposition and charges of opacity, arbitrariness, and cronyism. The development threatens to uproot people from the city and banish them to its peripheries as Mumbai’s turn to capitalist urbanism intensifies along with the suppression of its discontents. Fears of dispossession loom as the authorities decide who belongs and who doesn’t—mirroring the wider nativist politics of Hindu supremacism, fused with unfettered neoliberalism.

Climate Change and Conflict

Advancing Climate, Peace, Security, and Geopolitical Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region

Summary Report No.247 - September, 2025 • By Michael Copage and Janani Vivekananda

This summary report details the discussions, key themes and insights, key learnings, and a roadmap for action that came out of a July 2025 workshop, convened by Toda Peace Institute, adelphi, and ASPI’s Climate & Security Policy Centre in Canberra, Australia. Titled 'Advancing Climate, Peace, Security, and Geopolitical Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region', the workshop addressed the underexplored nexus of climate, peace, and security in Asia and the Pacific. The aim of the workshop was to drive a conversation on priorities and solutions to connect global approaches to climate, peace, and security with regional experts and institutional representatives from across Asia and the Pacific. This helped identify opportunities to generate concrete, region-grounded policy and program options linking climate, peace, and security.

From Words to Violence: Countering Extremist Rhetoric in Democratic Societies

Policy Brief No.246 - September, 2025 • By Jordan Ryan

This policy brief examines how sophisticated rhetorical strategies—combining overt divisive messaging with coded extremist language—operate across multiple communication levels to legitimise violence and undermine democratic institutions. Drawing on recent research in political psychology, comparative analysis of global democratic backsliding, and evidence from successful counter-messaging initiatives, it proposes a comprehensive framework for protecting democratic discourse. Traditional responses such as fact-checking and moral condemnation have proven inadequate against sophisticated extremist communication strategies that exploit emotional and identity-based appeals. Success requires coordinated international action across civil society organisations, educational institutions, technology companies, government agencies, and the business community.