Policy Briefs and Reports

This report discusses the rise of transactionalism in the Gulf states' relations with the US, which is set not only to sideline democratic principles, norms, and institutions within Gulf polities, but also within the wider Arab region. Transactionalism in this context favours close American ties with despotic regimes in the Gulf monarchies. The notion of 'democracy promotion in reverse' is introduced in the elaboration of US–Gulf relations in the Trump 2.0 Era. The foreign policies of these authoritarian regimes seem, with the benefit of hindsight and in the context of Arab Spring reforms, to counteract any notion of transformational politics favouring democratization in the rest of the Arab region.

This report provides a comparative perspective on two crucial questions. First, what are the possibilities that the United States might devolve into what political scientists have called a ‘competitive authoritarian regime’—one in which the façade of democratic institutions obscures the reality of political power that cannot be held to account by either constitutional checks-and-balances or by the electorate itself? Second, to what extent can its institutions recover from the damage incurred under Trump 2.0? Few, if any, ‘recovering’ backsliders have regained the level of democratic quality they had achieved prior to the backsliding episode. A likely scenario is one in which a post-Trump democracy would emerge significantly weaker than it was before.