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Peace and Security in Northeast Asia Policy Brief  No.229

Policy Brief No.229: Military Aspects of Deterrence and Reassurance Regarding Cross-Taiwan Strait Conflict

Karl Eikenberry

July 09, 2025

Image: Min C. Chiu/shutterstock.com

This Policy Brief analyzes the military aspects of the situation in the Taiwan Strait, where Mainland China’s relative power has been increasing. The author discusses the risk of war and how it can be avoided through a mix of deterrence and reassurance among the three parties: Mainland China, Taiwan, and the US. The author concludes by suggesting systematic dialogue on many levels to avoid accidents and above all to reduce the risk of a nuclear exchange.