Policy Briefs and Reports

This is the Summary Report of a conference convened by Toda Peace Institute against the backdrop of the American–Russian relationship—and with it the nuclear arms control regime—which is in tatters, existing agreements such as New START set to expire in February 2026 and no concrete follow-up on the horizon. There are proliferation concerns from North Korea, Iran, and elsewhere, while debates over non-nuclear postures in Europe and Asia increasingly threaten the future of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Meanwhile, the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons reflects the ongoing desire for a nuclear-free world but also highlights the lack of progress on long-standing promises. The conference aimed to explore preconditions for incremental progress in arms control, risk reduction, and confidence-building measures, and identify potential entry points for innovative global, regional, or national initiatives.

This report discusses the US’ audacious actions in Venezuela on 3 January 2026 which could be considered a full-frontal challenge to the Westphalian world. The author explains why the US action deserves one, but only one of the traditional three cheers; an amber warning light instead of the second cheer; and possibly even a jeer as the final reaction. Based on the three-part argument, the report concludes by raising the possibility that the US coup in Venezuela might have driven the final nail in the coffin of the liberal international order.