Cooperative Security, Arms Control and Disarmament Report No.269
Report No.269: Contested Future Paths in the War Against Ukraine: Conceivable Scenarios
Herbert Wulf
January 28, 2026
Image: Dmytro Larin / shutterstock.com
This report discusses the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war. To end suffering and destruction in Ukraine it is necessary to stop this war. Pathways to peace are urgently required. So far, several proposals and negotiations have not led to any viable result. In Western Europe and the Ukraine there is great scepticism about the type of negotiations that the US administration orchestrates. The report analyses four possible scenarios: (1) Russia’s military victory, (2) War without end, (3) Escalation, both horizontal and vertical escalation, and (4) Successful negotiations. One intervening factor may be the state of Russia’s War Economy. Can Russia's economy continue to bear the burdens of this war?