Peace and Security in Northeast Asia Report No.288
Report No.288: A Third Cold War
Barry Buzan
March 16, 2026
Image: Freemium A H R / shutterstock.com
This report argues that in 2025 the Second Cold War which followed a period of cold peace was succeeded by a Third. The Second Cold War was different from the First in being less about ideology and having close economic interdependence between China and the West. This Third Cold War has both a radically different pattern of alignments and an ideological shift to the values and aspirations of the far right and looks potentially quite durable. In other words, the condition of cold war remained continuous, but the architecture and aims of it changed dramatically.