Curated expert opinion on intractable contemporary issues

Global Outlook: Cooperative Security, Arms Control and Disarmament

Nuclear Prohibition: The Long Night’s Journey into Day

By Joseph Camilleri  |  17 November, 2020

The fiftieth ratification by Honduras a few weeks ago that will soon bring the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons into effect is a momentous occasion. It does not eliminate a single nuclear warhead, but it strengthens the principle that nuclear weapons are ethically indefensible and contrary to international law.

Mobilising the World Behind the Nuclear Weapons Ban Treaty

By Ramesh Thakur  |  08 November, 2020

On October 24, 75 years after the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Honduras became the 50th country to ratify the nuclear ban treaty. It will enter into force on January 22.

In Subtle Diplomatic Move, Canada Ceases its Opposition to Nuclear Weapons Prohibition Treaty

By Douglas Roche  |  05 November, 2020

In a subtle diplomatic move, the Government of Canada has ceased its opposition and now “acknowledges” the reason for the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, which will enter into force on January 22, 2021. The new treaty, which has been ratified by 50 states, has been denounced by the Trump administration and also rejected by NATO.

A China–US Power Transition, Cold War, or Shooting War?

By Ramesh Thakur  |  21 October, 2020

How accurate is it to call the current Sino–US hostility Cold War Two? Could it tip the world into a shooting war in which neither emerges victorious and everyone loses? In an agenda-resetting speech at the Hudson Institute in October 2018, US Vice President Mike Pence outlined a thick catalogue of predatory practices and aggressive behaviour by China.

Confidence Building and Risk Reduction Measures in Asia’s Nuclear Chain

By Ramesh Thakur  |  16 October, 2020

The Cold War-era weapons governance structures are no longer fit for purpose. In contemporary geopolitics, nuclear dyads have become nuclear chains. In an increasingly polycentric global order, the current nuclear arms control structure, built on the idea that disarmament can be managed via trade-offs between pairs of states whose very survival is dependent on stable strategic dyads, neither regulates nor constrains the choices of other nuclear-armed states.

Engaging the Nuclear-Armed States in the TPNW Disarmament Process

By Thomas E. Shea, PhD  |  16 October, 2020

Within a short time, perhaps by year’s end, 50 of the current 84 signatories to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (the TPNW) will complete their ratification processes, bringing the TPNW into force. None of the nine States currently possessing nuclear weapons has expressed any positive interest in the Treaty, continuing with impunity to reject every effort by the international community at beginning the process of nuclear disarmament. When the TPNW enters into force, it will for the first time present the entire international community – including the nine nuclear-armed States (China, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) – with a fait accompli, a legal framework intended to encourage progress toward the elimination of all nuclear weapons, to verify every step taken, to detect cheating, and to celebrate advances towards peace and stability.

The views and opinions expressed in Global Outlook are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Toda Peace Institute.