Multilateralism and the Future of Asian Peace amid US-China Rivalry

26-27 September 2026

This Toda Peace Institute project will bring together leading scholars and policy practitioners to address a central question for the Asia–Pacific region: How will states employ different institutional strategies to preserve peace and stability in an era of intensifying US–China rivalry? Through rigorous, collaborative, and policy-oriented inquiry, the project seeks to contribute meaningfully to academic debates and practical policy dialogues on the institutional foundations of peace and order in the Asia-Pacific.  It will culminate in an international workshop to systematically examine how states in the Asia-Pacific employ diverse institutional approaches, ranging from multilateralism, minilateralism, and bilateralism to unilateralism, or hybrid combinations thereof, to manage regional peace and security amid intensifying US–China competition.

For decades, multilateralism has served as a cornerstone of the Asia-Pacific regional order. Since the end of the Cold War, ASEAN-led frameworks have provided inclusive platforms for dialogue, confidence-building, and cooperative security among major and middle powers alike.

Today, this model of regional multilateralism faces mounting challenges: the deepening strategic rivalry between the United States and China, the rise of minilateral groupings, such as the Quad, AUKUS, and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF), and the revival of the US–China trade war under the Trump 2.0 administration.

At the same time, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its four global initiatives—the Global Development Initiative, Global Security Initiative, Global Civilization Initiative, and Global Governance Initiative—reflect Beijing’s ambition to advance alternative visions of regional and global order. Moreover, China’s distinctive “China Plus 1” institutional approach and the multilateral expansion of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) have further attracted regional and international attention. In contrast, the resurgence of “America First” policies and Washington’s unilateral tendencies have reinforced perceptions of U.S. disengagement from multilateralism. Together, these developments have deepened uncertainty about the institutional future of the Asia-Pacific.

Project Objectives

By bringing together leading scholars and policy practitioners, this project aims to:

• Identify the key institutional strategies adopted by major actors, including China, the United States, Japan, South Korea, ASEAN, and Australia, within the context of US– China rivalry;

• Explore the challenges and opportunities confronting regional multilateralism;

• Assess how different institutional strategies contribute to managing order transition under great-power rivalry;

• Develop practical recommendations for revitalizing and adapting multilateral and other institutional mechanisms to sustain regional peace, stability, and prosperity.