The impacts of climate change on peace and conflict are high on the agenda of policy makers and the general public. From UN Security Council debates about climate change and security to comics about the impact of drought on the Syrian civil war, interest in the topic has grown immensely in recent years. If challenges like the COVID-19 pandemic have taught us anything, it is the importance of science in addressing global problems. So, what is the scientific evidence on climate change, peace and conflict?

On 25 February, the government of the Autonomous Region of Bougainville in Papua New Guinea (PNG) declared a State of Emergency in the Atolls Constituency of the region. On 28 February, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its latest climate science report. While the state of emergency in Bougainville was hardly noticed internationally, the release of the IPCC report drew comprehensive international attention

Climate change pressures are pushing people from their homes and exacerbating tensions over control of valuable but shrinking natural resources like land, water and minerals, says new report

For many, the Glasgow Climate Change Conference, known as COP26, was a significant disappointment. Much had been promised by the UK Government, but last-minute ructions over the reference to the phase out of coal left many with a sour taste in their mouth. Glasgow was an opportunity to steer the global community towards the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global temperatures to 1.5⁰C above pre-industrial levels. For Pacific Small Island Developing States, the Glasgow conference was to be the pivot point for global action to address climate change.

Only a few Pacific Islanders made it to Glasgow in November 2021 for COP26. Out of the approximately 30,000 conference attendees, only about 140 were from Pacific Island Countries (PICs). Due to COVID-19 restrictions, both government delegations and civil society representation were considerably smaller than at previous COPs.

Our atoll nation is barely two metres above sea level, and the waters are coming for us. Despite the progress and momentum of the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow, we are still not moving fast enough to avoid the worst of climate change.