Report No.271: The Case for Collective Security in Europe After the War in Ukraine

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This report asks how the European security order could be imagined once the fighting in Ukraine has stopped and aims to show that there are alternative and more inclusive scenarios. The end of the Ukraine–Russian war could be a historical turning point. Such moments in history open up the possibility to try to do things better than before. The first part of this paper describes the differences between two fundamentally different types of security constellation: balance of power and collective security. The second part asks, what would a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia look like? The third part addresses the questions, what would the post-war security constellation in Europe be? What role is left for NATO, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and the EU? Where would Ukraine fit in? And what about Russia?