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Latest Policy Briefs and Reports
Cooperative Security, Arms Control and Disarmament
Internal Drivers – The Nexus between Domestic Politics and Bilateral Relations: Exploring India–Pakistan, Pakistan–China, and China–India Dynamics
Policy Brief No.148 - January, 2023 • By Sadia Tasleem
This Policy Brief explores the nexus between domestic politics and foreign policy in India, Pakistan, and China to explain what the contemporary domestic political trends in each state indicate about the future of bilateral relations and explains how bilateral relations may in turn affect domestic politics.
Cooperative Security, Arms Control and Disarmament
Ukraine as a Proxy War: Issues, Parties, Possible Outcomes, and Lessons
Policy Brief No.147 - January, 2023 • By Ramesh Thakur
This Policy Brief looks back on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in a longer-term and broader reflective analysis of four intertwined threads: the core issues at dispute, the conflict parties, the possible different endings to the war, and the principal lessons to be drawn from the conflict. Since the second world war, there has been a long-term shift from the power end of the spectrum towards the normative end as the pivot on which history turns, with a steady reduction in societal, national and international violence. This has been accompanied by a geographical shift from Europe to Asia and the Pacific as the new cockpit of world affairs. Bucking these twin trends, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine marked the return of Europe to the centre of world affairs, and the return to Europe of geopolitics, territorial disputes and large-scale force and ground wars not experienced since 1945. The Policy Brief concludes with the question: Where to next?
Peace and Security in Northeast Asia
Fixing the Deadlock in North Korean Denuclearisation
Policy Brief No.146 - December, 2022 • By Chung-in Moon
This Policy Brief, first published in the East Asia Forum, summarises the history and reviews the current position of the countries which took part in the Six-Party Talks. It concludes with the presentation of a possible way forward and an assessment of the cooperation necessary for progress to be made. Denuclearising North Korea is a perilous odyssey. Pragmatic attitudes coupled with multilateral arrangements can serve as a useful guide to navigating that odyssey.
Climate, Security and Peacebuilding: Challenges and Opportunities Across Scales: Workshop Report
Summary Report No.145 - December, 2022 • By Volker Boege
This is the Summary Report of a workshop under the title of ‘Climate, Security and Peacebuilding: Challenges and Opportunities Across Scales’, hosted by the Toda Peace Institute, Victoria University of Wellington – Te Herenga Waka and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) in Wellington, New Zealand, on 27 and 28 October 2022. The workshop addressed challenges and opportunities across scales, from the local to the international, acknowledging that the effects of climate change generate challenges to peace and security across multiple scales and dimensions of societal life, from the everyday security of community members in rural environments to geo-political stability in regional-international contexts. This Summary Report aims to identify the key issue areas and focus on selected findings and insights from the workshop, based on the key notes, presentations and discussions in the various sessions.
Cooperative Security, Arms Control and Disarmament
Managing the China, India and Pakistan Nuclear Trilemma: Ensuring Nuclear Stability in the New Nuclear Age
Policy Brief No.144 - December, 2022 • By Rakesh Sood
This Policy Brief identifies the challenges of the new nuclear age in terms of multiple dyads and triangular relationships and examines the relevance of the existing deterrence model. How will nuclear deterrence work in a non-bipolar world? Is the answer in terms of reducing equations to multiple dyads or trilemmas or strategic chains? What should be the objective of arms control in a multiplayer set up? Is the existing vocabulary of deterrence that originated in a bipolar Cold War context holding up in today’s world? This paper seeks to explore these questions in the context of the China, India and Pakistan trilemma. A short account of the China–India and Pakistan–India rivalries, its sources, similarities and differences is presented, along with attempts made so far to address the risks through bilateral agreements and understandings. Finally, future possibilities for dialogue to manage nuclear risks, bilaterally, trilaterally and in a larger setting are examined.