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Latest Policy Briefs and Reports
Cooperative Security, Arms Control and Disarmament
Mapping The Emerging Strategic Stability And Arms Control Landscape
Policy Brief No.133 - July, 2022 • By Andrew Futter
This Policy Brief considers the suggestion that we are arguably on the cusp of a new “nuclear age” where we will need to rethink the rules of the nuclear game and how we prevent nuclear use. We are living in an era of transition and uncertainty in the global nuclear order where nuclear security and nuclear risks are changing and the ways, ends and means devised to manage the nuclear condition are under pressure. This is the result of a technological, geopolitical and normative change and transformation across the nuclear ecosystem. Taken together, these developments are calling into question the way that we manage nuclear threats, and particularly how we think about strategic stability and arms control. While there have been periods of unsettling, rapid, and potentially revolutionary change in the global nuclear order in the past, today appears to be different because the phenomenon is so wide-spread, multifaceted, and because the challenges go right to the heart of how we think about and conceptualise the nuclear condition.
Climate Change, Population Mobility and Relocation in Oceania, Part II: Origins, Destinations and Community Relocation
Policy Brief No.132 - July, 2022 • By John R. Campbell
This is Part II of a Policy Brief on the issues of climate change and population mobility (and immobility) in Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs). Following the outline of concepts and key considerations in Part I, this Policy Brief begins with an examination of existing and possible future origins and destinations of climate change associated mobility. Attention then turns more specifically to existing experiences and possible expectations of mobility, especially community relocation, in Oceania. It then considers the issue of immobility and draws attention to gender issues that will need to be addressed in community relocation planning and implementation.
Climate Change, Population Mobility and Relocation in Oceania, Part I: Background and Concepts
Policy Brief No.131 - July, 2022 • By John R. Campbell
This Policy Brief reviews the literature on climate change and human mobility, with reference to Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs). The issue of migration triggered or driven by climate change has become the focus of a massive increase in research and publications over the last decade or so. Initially it was an issue that was framed in negative terms but recently, much more nuanced understandings of the links between climate change and human population mobility have emerged. This review will briefly outline the types of environmentally influenced migration, discuss the various ‘theories’ on climate change and mobility, review the importance of land in relation to mobility in PICTs before examining historical and contemporary cases of climate change mobility. It is followed by Part II which examines existing and possible future origins and destinations of climate change associated mobility as well as the issue of immobility.
Social Media, Technology and Peacebuilding
Decolonising Peacebuilding: A Way Forward Out of Crisis
Policy Brief No.130 - June, 2022 • By Lisa Schirch
This Policy Brief begins by describing the evolution of the peacebuilding field in two related categories: one emphasising social justice, and the other, at the opposite end of the spectrum, emphasising stability, and concludes by exploring an agenda for decolonising peacebuilding. Current economic and political models often seem to be fuelling disorder rather than promoting the order or stability they aim to achieve. How will the peacebuilding field respond or transform given current global challenges? What would a “build back better” approach to peacebuilding look like, starting from the current triad of crises—pandemic, climate change and weaponisable technology—, which some have claimed constitute a “new world disorder”? What would a “great reset” for the peacebuilding field look like in practice?
How Robust is the Evidence on Climate Security? An Assessment of Confidence Levels in IPCC Reports via the SCIPCC Dashboard.
Policy Brief No.129 - June, 2022 • By Cesare Scartozzi
This Policy Brief aims to fill existing research gaps and discuss the temporal and thematic evolution of confidence levels in WGII's climate security reporting. Since AR4, the IPCC has been assigning a level of scientific uncertainty to each substantive statement in its reports. Using a novel application of natural language processing, this study was able to assess IPCC confidence levels in climate security literature over time and across topics. The study finds that more scholarship does not automatically lead to more robust evidence and that while the IPCC has a strong bias toward reporting findings with medium to high confidence levels, the under-representation of low confidence findings is somewhat problematic. The Policy Brief concludes with recommendations for researchers and practitioners.