Policy Briefs on Cooperative Security, Arms Control and Disarmament

A recent international workshop of experts and diplomats has concluded that sweeping changes in the world order over the last two decades have contributed to the unravelling of the arms control regime. The workshop, convened by the Toda Peace Institute, the Norwegian Institute for International Affairs and the University of Otago, brought together representatives of the arms control communities in the United States, Russia, Europe, China, India, Pakistan, Japan and the Middle East. A key theme concerned the prospects for checking the dangerous dynamics now under way in this time of turbulent change. The workshop examined three historical precedents for managing international security and arms control cooperatively and drew a number of lessons for the present day.

The September 19 Military Agreement adopted by the two Koreas in 2018 is a modest but remarkable success in arms control history. Nevertheless, heated debates are taking place, both inside South Korea and abroad, over the legitimacy and rationality of the agreement. This policy brief analyses the true meaning of the September 19 Military Agreement between the two Koreas, to identify its problems and policy implications in order to draw up supplementary measures to implement it successfully. Furthermore, the paper draws some implications for the relationship between progress on North Korea's denuclearisation issue and further conventional arms control on the Korean Peninsula.

History supplies few examples of successful great power cooperation for preserving peace over long periods. For the emerging multipolar structure, one of the rare templates of successful peace-preserving collaboration has been the Concert of Europe (CoE), which emerged in the course of the Vienna Congress of 1815. The CoE worked for a century; it prevented great power war for two long periods and managed at least to avoid all-out war in the interim period of the Crimea War and the Wars of German and Italian unification). This policy brief examines the achievements and shortcomings of the CoE, and discusses how these insights might be applied in light of current global power relations.

Since the possession of nuclear weapons, India is more awake to the realistic utility of nuclear arms control as an arms race management instrument or a risk reduction instrument. Ongoing developments in nuclear arms control should matter for India, even if these are taking place in the US-Russia bilateral domain. Whether the future trajectory of NAC will result in positive consequences or adverse ones for New Delhi will depend on many factors, including how these are handled. This policy brief highlights four main issues that will have implications at the global and regional levels, for India in particular and offers five ideas for future NAC possibilities.

There is a sense that world order is at a point of transition but we do not know what we are transitioning to. How can we ensure that these processes do not threaten international peace and security? How can we direct the processes of change and transformation to our advantage while avoiding the dangers that they create? What adjustments do we have to make to ensure that the basis exists for cooperative security in the emerging world order? This policy brief considers cooperative security in the rules-based world order and what the future might hold as rules-based order declines. It proposes that a productive approach is to explore a vision of a shared future and concludes with five recommendations.