The Trump Presidency and Climate Security in the Indo-Pacific Region

Image: Benjamin Doyle/shutterstock.com

In the first hundred days of his second presidency, Donald Trump has caused considerable turmoil. Radical cuts to federal spending, concerning attacks on democratic guardrails, the (potential) introduction of massive tariffs, and erratic mediation efforts between Russia and the Ukraine indicate a rapid transformation of US and indeed global realities. Amid these concerns, climate change persists as one of the greatest security challenges of the 21^st century.

In this article, I provide a brief overview about how the policies of the second Trump administration affect climate security, with a particular focus on the Indo-Pacific region. By its very nature, such a list has to be temporary because Trump’s second term has just started. Likewise, given the far-reaching impacts the administration’s policies are likely to have, a discussion of all their potential climate security implications would go beyond the scope of this brief analysis. That said, the second Trump presidency will have clear and adverse impacts on climate security in the Indo-Pacific.

To start with, on his first day as President, Trump withdrew the USA from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the associated Paris Agreement. While far from being perfect, the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement are the cornerstones of cooperative international efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. As the second-largest emitter of CO₂, the US withdrawal deals a serious blow to international climate politics, particularly as other countries might use the occasion to reduce their commitments as well (or take them less seriously). Large parts of the Indo-Pacific region are already highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, including the Pacific Island nations, but also countries like Bangladesh, Cambodia and Papua New Guinea. Any additional decimal degree of warming due to the climate-political disruptions of the Trump administration will accelerate these vulnerabilities.

Furthermore, climate change adaptation has financial implications. Measures to reduce the human security costs of climate change like the planned or facilitated relocation of communities, investments into drought-resilient agriculture, climate-related disaster risk reduction, and improved health infrastructure, are expensive. Trump’s tariffs and the economic disruptions they cause (even in case they are not fully implemented) can constrain the ability of states and households to pay for climate adaptation. To grasp the regional relevance of the topic, keep in mind that several of the highest tariffs are threatened on the Indo-Pacific: Sri Lanka (44%), Vietnam (46%), Laos (48%), and of course China (125%).

International aid cuts will further aggravate the situation. Last year, USAID provided almost US $3 billion in foreign aid to South, East and Central Asia as well as Oceania. A significant part of USAID’s total budget went to sectors like humanitarian response (US $9.9 billion), health (US $9.5 billion) and agriculture (US $1.1 billion) that are crucial in responding to or preparing for climate hazards. In Bangladesh and Nepal, for instance, USAID-funded programs played a major role in dealing with the cyclone, drought, and flood risks. With USAID likely to be dismantled as an agency, these programs will vanish or face severe cuts, leaving the Indo-Pacific region more vulnerable to climate change.

Many measures to deal with climate change are based on cutting-edge science. Think of high-end climate models, disaster forecasting systems, and climate-smart agriculture. In the past weeks, the Trump administration has rolled back many research grants on climate issues. It also cut the funds and personnel of federal agencies working on environmental concerns. This means that key meteorological data many climate researchers use may no longer be accessible. Together with reduced funding to adjunct topics, such as disaster responses or public health, this is a severe blow to the knowledge base crucial for dealing with climate change.

While these impacts of the Trump presidency undermine human security, they also have significant national security implications in the face of climate change. Institutions like the US Institute for Peace and the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program were at the forefront of producing policy-relevant (and publicly available) knowledge on how climate change impacts armed conflict, migration, and the military. The US administration is currently dismantling both. The erratic behaviour and disregard for international norms of the Trump administration might also pose a problem for international security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. The militaries of key regional allies of the US, such as Australia or the Philippines, could struggle to cope with an increasing number of disasters, the impacts of climate change on their infrastructure, and (in case of the Philippines, but also of India or Indonesia, for instance) internal unrest related to environmental stress.

In sum, the second Trump presidency has already caused serious knowledge and capacity gaps in the climate security space, including in the Indo-Pacific. The impacts of these developments will likely get worse in the years to come. Consequentially, other actors will need to step up their game to at least partially fill the gap.  Luckily, among all the backlash and scepticism, there are some optimistic signs in the region. India’s military is increasingly considering the security implications of climate change. Australia’s current government is much more willing to act on climate change than its predecessors. Japan has recently supported systematic and openly available assessments of climate security in the Indo-Pacific. And the Philippines has stepped up its disaster relief efforts, particularly in politically fragile regions of the country. None of these initiatives are sufficient by themselves, but they are increasingly important steps in the right direction.

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Tobias Ide is Associate Professor in Politics and International Relations at Murdoch University Perth. Until recently, he was also Adjunct Associate Professor of International Relations at the Brunswick University of Technology. He has published widely on the intersections of the environment, climate change, peace, conflict and security, including in Global Environmental Change, International Affairs, Journal of Peace Research, Nature Climate Change, and World Development. He is also a director of the Environmental Peacebuilding Association.