The Indus Water Treaty Suspension: A Wake-Up Call for Asia–Pacific Unity ?

Image: Confluence of the Indus and Zanskar Rivers | martinho Smart/shutterstock.com

On April 23, India suspended the Indus Water Treaty (IWT), a 65-year-old agreement that had been a rare symbol of cooperation between India and Pakistan despite decades of hostility. The suspension came a day after militants attacked civilians in Jammu and Kashmir, a disputed region, killing 26 people, most of them Indian tourists.  India accused Pakistan of supporting “cross-border terrorism” and responded by halting the treaty. Pakistan denied involvement in the attack and called India’s move an “act of war.”

The IWT, signed in 1960, was a landmark agreement that allowed the two countries to share the water of the Indus River system. It gave India control over the eastern tributaries (Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas), and Pakistan control over the western tributaries (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab). Beyond water-sharing, the treaty established mechanisms for data sharing, technical cooperation and dispute resolution. For decades, the treaty was celebrated as a triumph of diplomacy and environmental cooperation. But its suspension now threatens to unravel this legacy, with devastating consequences – especially for Pakistan.

Why the IWT Matters

Pakistan’s economy depends heavily on agriculture, which employs nearly 70% of its rural workforce. The Indus River irrigates 80% of the country’s farmland, making it a lifeline for millions. If India were to divert or reduce water flows, it could cripple Pakistan’s agriculture, triggering widespread food insecurity and economic instability. The stakes are high, and the consequences of failing to manage shared water resources responsibly would ripple far beyond Pakistan’s borders.

The timing of the IWT’s suspension couldn’t be worse. Climate and environmental risks are escalating across the Asia–Pacific region, with extreme weather events becoming more frequent and severe. Between 2008-2023, floods displaced 57 million people in India alone. In Pakistan, floods have not only destroyed homes but have also degraded soil quality, leaving farmers unable to grow enough crops to survive. These pressures are driving migration to cities, where migrants face exploitative conditions and often accrue large debts.

Climate Risks and Regional Instability

The link between climate change and regional instability is becoming impossible to ignore. In Central Asia, a 2021 clash over transboundary water resources between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan left 50 dead and displaced 10,000 others. In the Pacific, rising sea levels are forcing entire communities to relocate, sparking tensions in countries like Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands. Meanwhile, large-scale infrastructure projects, such as hydroelectric dams in Southeast Asia, are displacing thousands and straining relations between countries like Laos, Thailand and Vietnam.  

The demand for critical minerals to build renewable energy sources is adding another layer of complexity. Competition between China and the U.S over these resources is heightening global tensions. Critical mineral mining is also fuelling exploitation and violence in mining regions, like the Philippines and Indonesia. These examples highlight a troubling reality: climate and environmental risks are not just environmental issues – they are also security issues.

The Case for Regional Cooperation

Responding to these challenges requires a collective approach. Climate risks don’t respect national borders, and attempting to tackle them in isolation is a losing strategy.  Cooperation offers a way to pool resources, share knowledge, and build resilience. For low-income countries in particular, regional solidarity—through climate finance, data sharing and technological transfer—could mean the difference between survival or collapse. 

But cooperation isn’t just about survival; it’s also about seizing opportunities. Joint climate action can strengthen regional ties, foster peace and create shared prosperity. Cross-border collaboration on climate and environmental issues can connect institutions, research communities, and civil society, laying the groundwork to tackle future challenges. By working together, the Asia–Pacific region can turn shared challenges into shared strengths.

The suspension of the IWT is a wake-up call. At a time when cooperation is more critical than ever, we cannot afford to let geopolitical tensions derail climate action. The Asia–Pacific region faces immense challenges, but it also holds immense potential. By prioritising collaboration over confrontation, the climate crisis could provide an opportunity for peace, resilience, and shared prosperity. The path forward won’t be easy, but it’s the only path worth taking.

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