Kashmir: Escalating to War?

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Two weeks after a militant group carried out a terrorist attack in the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir, the Indian Air Force launched air strikes on Pakistani territory. Is a war now looming that could also involve the US, Russia, China and possibly others?

Until now the governments in New Delhi and Islamabad had responded to the terrorist attack in Kashmir with restraint – withdrawing diplomatic personnel, closing a border check point, talking about punishment, and India suspending the Indus Water Treaty. However, the Indian government had also threatened retaliation. According to New Delhi, "Operation Sindoor", a number of air strikes carried out on 7 May, is intended to eliminate the "terrorist infrastructure" where the attack was "planned and directed." Now the conflict between the two nuclear-armed states appears to be escalating. Two fighter jets are said to have crashed in India and Indian-controlled Kashmir. Pakistan claims to have shot down the planes. There are deaths, injuries, and destruction on both sides.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has now also announced retaliation with "appropriate measures." Pakistan's government denied any involvement and described the Indian air strikes as "an unprovoked and blatant act of war" and a "violation of Pakistan's sovereignty." Pakistani military experts claim that one of the downed fighter jets was a modern French Rafale. This aircraft type has been flown by the Indian Air Force since 2022, as have the older Mirage fighter jets, built by the same French manufacturer, Dassault Aviation, since the mid-2000s.

Arms deliveries to India and Pakistan: Shifting support

Whether it actually was a French fighter jet or not remains to be seen. This clash certainly sheds light on which other countries—arms suppliers or allies—could be drawn into this escalating conflict.

Since the Russian full invasion of Ukraine, the public has repeatedly criticised that India is "neutral" towards Russia, partly because the Indian armed forces are dependent on Russian arms and spare parts supplies. This aspect is only part of the bigger picture. Two decades ago, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), around three-quarters of all arms imported by India came from Russia. Indian weapon imports also included weapons from the Soviet Union that were built under license in India. Today, the picture is completely different. Since relations between the USA and India improved in 2005 and India is increasingly seen as a potential ally of the USA in their competition with China, India has increasingly been buying arms from Western countries. India is the largest arms importer of the world and has spent billions of dollars on modern equipment in recent years.

The decline in arms imports from Russia since their peak in 2012/2013 is a conscious decision to reduce dependence on a single supplier. It is directed less against Russia than toward diversifying supply sources. However, this reorientation is a decades-long process. The decision to purchase a major weapons system typically commits the cooperation partners for long periods. To this day, the Indian Air Force flies its modernised MiG21 Soviet fighter jets, for which the procurement decision was made more than 60 years ago.

Around half of the Indian armed forces’ arsenal still comes from this cooperation. Russian President Vladimir Putin was one of the first to assure Modi of his "full support" in the fight against terrorism and described the recent attack in Kashmir as "barbaric”. Nevertheless, India is striving to reduce its dependence on Russian arms supplies. Besides France, currently India's second-largest arms supplier, the remaining weapons, especially modern defence technology, come from Israel, the United States, and Germany.

The opposite trend occurred in Pakistan. The United States, which supported Pakistan for decades with massive military aid and was on Pakistan’s side in the 1971 war for independence of Bangladesh, has now been replaced by China as the country's main arms supplier. Two decades ago, Pakistan imported about a third of its weapons from the United States—among them modern F-16 fighter jets—and another third from China. Today, over 80 percent of Pakistan's major arms imports come from China. In the current conflict, the Chinese government has announced that it will "always support" Islamabad to "ensure peace and stability in South Asia."

Escalation Ladder

Since the partition of the Indian subcontinent in 1947, Kashmir has been a flashpoint of conflict. No final decision was made regarding the predominantly Muslim regions of Jammu and Kashmir during the partition. The ruling Hindu Maharaja initially wanted to remain independent but requested military support from India when Pakistani rebels invaded. This led to the division that still exists today between an Indian- and a Pakistani-controlled part of Kashmir, with separatist tendencies still evident in the Indian part.

There are at least four levels of conflict that could lead to a spiral of escalation: First, the terrorist attacks that have been carried out for years in the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir, for which India repeatedly blames Pakistan. On several occasions, attacks have led to tensions and clashes. When 19 Indian soldiers were killed in 2016, the Indian armed forces carried out "surgical strikes" across the border. Three years later, 40 people were killed in a bomb attack. India responded with airstrikes deep inside Pakistan's hinterland. The military clashes remained limited.

The second level of conflict and escalation is a possible large-scale military confrontation between the two warring countries. India and Pakistan waged war over Kashmir from 1947 to 1949, but also in 1965 and 1999, as well as in 1971 over the secession of East Pakistan, present-day Bangladesh. However, these wars also ended without a solution to the Kashmir problem.

Third, since the end of the anti-colonial brotherhood between India and China under Jawaharlal Nehru and Mao Tse-tung in the late 1950s, three border regions in the Himalayas remain disputed. The two countries fought a bitter war in 1962, which ended in defeat for India. Since then, there have been several military clashes, most recently in 2020. Both sides accuse each other of violating existing agreements. None of them is prepared to give up a single square metre of territory. All previous attempts to resolve the border conflict, even at the highest level between Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi, have failed. Both countries have a relationship characterised by competition and conflict.

Finally, and fourthly, there is the danger that externally involved countries—arms suppliers and allies—could be drawn into the conflict. China has positioned itself pro-Pakistan, Russia and the United States pro-India. So far, they have acted as moderators, calling on both governments for restraint. It remains to be hoped that their voices carry enough weight to avoid another major war. Both sides have taken tit-for-tat measures. It cannot be ruled out that they will intensify these measures.

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Kashmir: Paradise Lost (3-minute read)

It's China, stupid! Why the West is Courting India (3-minute read)

Herbert Wulf is a Professor of International Relations and former Director of the Bonn International Center for Conflict Studies (BICC). He is presently a Senior Fellow at BICC, an Adjunct Senior Researcher at the Institute for Development and Peace, University of Duisburg/Essen, Germany, and a Research Affiliate at the National Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies, University of Otago, New Zealand. He serves on the Scientific Council of SIPRI.