From Democratic Leader to Autocratic Example: The Global Impact of U.S. Backsliding

Image: PEPFAR display, George W. Bush Presidential Library and Museum - Teresa Otto/shutterstock.com

In a strategic barrage of executive orders, President Trump has launched a 'flood the zone' tactic, overwhelming democratic processes and throwing governance into disarray. This approach, reflective of autocratic tendencies, has been evident since his inauguration, with numerous directives swiftly signed, ranging from withdrawing from international agreements to imposing broad domestic changes. These actions threaten to undermine global stability and democratic norms, signaling a perilous shift in the governance of a nation critical to international peace.

On 27 January 2025, the Trump administration’s decision to freeze billions in congressionally authorised funding marked an alarming shift in democratic governance with profound global implications. The Office of Management and Budget halted essential financial assistance across multiple sectors, including foreign aid, NGO support, and environmental initiatives. While a federal court has temporarily stayed parts of this directive, its broader consequences for global stability and co-operation remain severe. This unilateral executive action strikes at the heart of democratic principles, particularly the separation of powers—a cornerstone of the U.S. Constitution.

In the United States, the separation of powers is designed to prevent any single branch of government from gaining disproportionate control. Congress, as the branch vested with the “power of the purse,” holds the authority to allocate federal funds. By overriding Congress’s financial decisions, the Trump administration has not only disrupted domestic programmes but also sent a troubling signal to the international community about the stability and reliability of U.S. democratic processes.

The impact of this directive extends far beyond U.S. borders, threatening vital global health programmes and peace-building efforts. Most critically, the freeze has jeopardised the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which provides life-saving HIV treatments to 20 million people across 50 countries. Although a recent waiver by the State Department has allowed medication distribution to resume, questions linger about the continuity of other PEPFAR services. Similarly, programmes combating malaria and tuberculosis face suspension, risking the reversal of decades of progress in global health.

The disruption is not limited to public health. NGOs across Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, which rely on U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) funding for conflict resolution and post-conflict reconstruction, are now forced to scale back or shut down operations. These cutbacks threaten to create dangerous power vacuums in fragile regions, undoing years of painstaking peace-building efforts.

This pattern of executive overreach reflects a broader, concerning trend in democracies around the world. In Hungary, Viktor Orbán’s government continues to centralise power and undermine judicial independence. In Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has tightened control over the judiciary and suppressed media freedoms. Meanwhile, Poland’s Law and Justice Party has systematically weakened democratic institutions. These developments illustrate how domestic autocratic shifts can inspire and justify similar moves globally, destabilising international norms and cooperation.

The actions of the U.S. administration, once seen as a beacon of democratic principles, now risk legitimising similar tactics by other nations. Countries with fragile democratic institutions may feel emboldened to undermine checks and balances, viewing the U.S. example as a green light to centralise power. This trend poses a profound challenge to the international order, as it threatens to erode democratic norms and encourage autocratic behaviours worldwide.

As the United States retreats from its traditional leadership role in global development, countries reliant on U.S. funding for health programmes and human rights initiatives face an uncertain future. This withdrawal undermines the international consensus on democratic values and emboldens autocratic regimes. Furthermore, the erosion of democratic norms within the United States has far-reaching consequences, weakening the international system where U.S. leadership in global health, human rights, and development has long been a cornerstone of co-operation. The current funding freeze represents more than a policy adjustment—it signals a fundamental challenge to multilateral engagement and global stability.

The international community must respond decisively. Civil society organisations, democratic governments, and international bodies need to strengthen their co-operation to safeguard the progress achieved in global peace, health, and development. Proactive measures are crucial to counter the risks posed by democratic backsliding and ensure the continuity of critical initiatives.

The erosion of democratic norms in the United States and beyond threatens the foundations of global stability. By prioritising collective action and reinforcing the values that sustain international systems, the global community can mitigate these risks and chart a path towards a more stable, equitable, and just future.

Policy Recommendations:

1. Establish emergency funding mechanisms to sustain critical global health and peace-building programmes during political disruptions.
2. Create multilateral support networks to protect democratic institutions from erosion.
3. Develop alternative funding streams for essential humanitarian initiatives.
4. Build resilient civil society networks capable of maintaining crucial programmes despite political pressures.
5. Foster new coalitions between civil society, governments, and international organisations to safeguard democratic values.

Update: While the White House has rescinded its memo freezing federal funds, the implications of its issuance and the precedent it sets will have lasting repercussions for democratic governance and global stability.

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Jordan Ryan is a member of the Toda International Research Advisory Council (TIRAC) at the Toda Peace Institute, a Senior Consultant at the Folke Bernadotte Academy and former UN Assistant Secretary-General with extensive experience in international peacebuilding, human rights, and development policy. His work focuses on strengthening democratic institutions and international cooperation for peace and security. Ryan has led numerous initiatives to support civil society organisations and promote sustainable development across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. He regularly advises international organisations and governments on crisis prevention and democratic governance.