Prospects for a Kamala Harris Administration

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As of late October, the presidential election in the United States is on a knife’s edge.  The only reasonably certain scenario in the immediate future is that the outcome on election day will be bitterly contested, and that some level of violence is highly likely if Harris is declared the winner.   I leave it to others to try to read the tea leaves about how the events of the next few months will unfold, and I will not attempt to elaborate the formidable threats to human rights, international stability, and U.S. democracy that will be unleashed if Trump gains the presidency.  These threats have been widely discussed.  But there is surprisingly little discussion about the implications of a Harris presidency.   To be sure, by bringing a woman – and a second person of color – into the Oval Office, Harris’s victory would mark an historic step forward.  And preventing a second Trump term would, in itself, be of paramount importance.  But what would President Harris actually be able to do?  It might be useful to speculate about what we might realistically expect from a Harris administration.    

To begin with, we should bear in mind that the implementation of President Harris’s domestic agenda will be severely constrained by a divided Congress (at least for her first two years), and by a conservative Supreme Court.  This means that she will not be able to pass most of the “big ticket” items she has proposed in her campaign – more progressive taxation, extensive family-oriented programs, expanded access to home-ownership, etc.   She might be able to deploy her regulatory authority in some policy areas (e.g., health and environment), and – not insignificantly – she will also undoubtedly try to push ahead incrementally in areas of racial justice, gender equality, and public safety.  However, she will face serious pushback on many of these efforts from the Court.   What she will be able to do is to defend and continue the dramatic achievements of the Biden (and Harris) administration in infrastructure and environment, achievements that have already been encoded in law.  The historic significance of the Biden legislative legacy has been obscured in the heat of the current campaign by the diffuse demand for “change.” But we should not allow unrealistic expectations about further advances to blind us to the importance of defending the major progress made during his presidency.    

President Harris will have more political leeway in defining U.S. foreign policy.  Here, however, she will inherit daunting international crises – not only the terrible wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, but the ongoing threats to international stability caused by the rise of China, continuing threats from Russia and Iran, and challenges to international cooperation posed by climate change, cybersecurity, and global migration, among other things.  Again, however, we should not underestimate the enormous importance of the fact that she is not Trump.  She might not be able to work miracles, but in contrast to Trump, we can count on her to place a high priority on U.S. alliances, and international cooperation in security and the global economy – essential preconditions for managing the problems we face abroad.

The profound cultural, racial, and economic divisions that currently imperil American democracy preceded the rise of Trump and can be expected to persist beyond a Harris presidency.  Moreover, many of the more immediate steps necessary to reduce these divisions are beyond her control.   In my judgment, we cannot move forward without bringing Trump and his associates to legal account.  This will be a deeply controversial, but necessary step.  But it is one that Harris should not attempt to influence.  Beyond that, American democracy cannot fully rebound without either the re-democratization of the Republican party or the emergence of a new conservative party that would replace it.  But that, of course, is entirely up to opposition politicians and their voters. 

What we can realistically hope for is that President Harris will be able to build on Biden’s achievements, maintain sound economic policies, and prevent international crises from spiraling out of control.  If she does that, she will also have played an important part in healing American democracy.  

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Backsliding: the subversion of democracies in the 21st century (YouTube video with Robert R. Kaufman and Stephan Haggard)

Robert R. Kaufman is an Emeritus Professor of Political Science, Rutgers University.  He is co-author of Backsliding: Democratic Regress in the Contemporary World, Cambridge University Press, 2021.