Policy Briefs on Peace and Security in Northeast Asia

This Policy Brief analyzes the military aspects of the situation in the Taiwan Strait, where Mainland China’s relative power has been increasing. The author discusses the risk of war and how it can be avoided through a mix of deterrence and reassurance among the three parties: Mainland China, Taiwan, and the US. The author concludes by suggesting systematic dialogue on many levels to avoid accidents and above all to reduce the risk of a nuclear exchange.

This policy brief examines how China and the United States can manage their co-existence through ‘copetition’—a combination of cooperation and competition—rather than just competition or rivalry. The author begins by pointing out that co-existence is more difficult to manage now between China and the US than it was between the USSR and US during the Cold War. Then he proceeds to propose measures that can make the co-existence manageable or ‘mutually assured’. Sixteen measures are proposed including the key measure of permanent contact and dialogue on many levels.

This policy brief examines how the United States and China could initiate a ‘reassurance spiral’ to reduce escalating tensions and mitigate the risk of military conflict. Bilateral relations are deteriorating amid growing strategic and economic competition, mutual insecurity, and reduced cooperation channels and the risks of frictions igniting conflict are on the rise. Both nations face an urgent need for reassurance strategies that credibly demonstrate benign intentions without compromising deterrence capabilities. This brief argues that reassurance is possible, despite significant challenges. There are initial steps that are ‘low cost’ that could enable the two countries to reassure each other to create reciprocal positive momentum that could evolve into reduced bilateral tensions.

This Summary Report follows a recent Toda Research Cluster meeting on “US–China Reassurance.” In a global context which is increasingly volatile, a strategic approach is urgently needed to stabilize bilateral relations and prevent military conflicts between the United States and China. This report underscores the necessity of “reassurance” as a conflict prevention measure to address the growing risk of military confrontation and preserve the fragile “East Asian Peace” amid intensifying strategic competition and aims to provide actionable insights for mitigating tensions and fostering a more stable and cooperative relationship between the two great powers.

This is a report on an international workshop held in Beijing, convened by Toda Peace Institute and the Institute of Japanese Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (IJSCASS). The workshop suggested that, so long as the states in the East Asian region act responsibly, avoid confrontation, exercise restraint, tolerate diverse development paths and reassure one another, it should be possible to preserve and even to deepen the East Asian peace. However, the long peace is threatened by the deteriorating international environment and rivalry between the United States and China. Mistrust between China, Korea and Japan and their failure to achieve reconciliation hamper efforts to establish a common security framework in East Asia. In this context, the workshop aimed to build collaborative relationships between scholars and policymakers, encourage dialogue, and identify promising multilateral approaches to the region’s challenges.