Policy Briefs on Peace and Security in Northeast Asia

This Policy Brief argues that the conflict over Taiwan’s status is not primarily driven by geopolitics or considerations for power. It is a struggle between rivalling national identities, reinforced by compelling historical narratives. This means that peace cannot be preserved by just mutual deterrence. Strategic reassurance, with a basis in respect for each other’s identity, may provide the key to preventing escalation to armed conflict. Reassurance complements deterrence by addressing the underlying identity fears. It sends the message that China’s national rejuvenation, Taiwan’s democratic survival, and US global leadership can all be maintained without war. Strategic reassurance reduces the existential cost of restraint, making compromise and coexistence politically and psychologically feasible.

The Chinese mainland government places significant importance on the assurances provided by both the US government and the Taiwan authorities regarding the Taiwan question. The author argues that the US should publicly declare that it pursues long-term peaceful coexistence with China, will not obstruct the peaceful reunification across the Taiwan Strait for the sake of strategic competition, and does not support Taiwan independence. Chinese officials can regularly restate the mainland’s policy towards Taiwan to the international community, emphasizing that "peaceful reunification is the best way to achieve cross-strait reunification." China should avoid engaging in the so-called ‘great power strategic competition’ with the United States and should conduct authorized ‘Track II’ dialogues with scholars and former officials from the DPP.

This Policy Brief analyzes the military aspects of the situation in the Taiwan Strait, where Mainland China’s relative power has been increasing. The author discusses the risk of war and how it can be avoided through a mix of deterrence and reassurance among the three parties: Mainland China, Taiwan, and the US. The author concludes by suggesting systematic dialogue on many levels to avoid accidents and above all to reduce the risk of a nuclear exchange.

This policy brief examines how China and the United States can manage their co-existence through ‘copetition’—a combination of cooperation and competition—rather than just competition or rivalry. The author begins by pointing out that co-existence is more difficult to manage now between China and the US than it was between the USSR and US during the Cold War. Then he proceeds to propose measures that can make the co-existence manageable or ‘mutually assured’. Sixteen measures are proposed including the key measure of permanent contact and dialogue on many levels.

This policy brief examines how the United States and China could initiate a ‘reassurance spiral’ to reduce escalating tensions and mitigate the risk of military conflict. Bilateral relations are deteriorating amid growing strategic and economic competition, mutual insecurity, and reduced cooperation channels and the risks of frictions igniting conflict are on the rise. Both nations face an urgent need for reassurance strategies that credibly demonstrate benign intentions without compromising deterrence capabilities. This brief argues that reassurance is possible, despite significant challenges. There are initial steps that are ‘low cost’ that could enable the two countries to reassure each other to create reciprocal positive momentum that could evolve into reduced bilateral tensions.