The War in Iran and Cross-Strait Stability: Despite Diminished US Capabilities, a Chinese Attack on Taiwan Remains Unlikely

Image: Andy.LIU / shutterstock.com

This policy brief argues that, contrary to speculation that the Iran War may provide an opportunity for China to exploit US weakness to attempt forcible reunification with Taiwan, the Iran War has not degraded, and may actually bolster, cross-Strait stability. It does so by reinforcing that time is on China’s side. Rather than fighting a costly war over Taiwan, China can exercise patience and achieve reunification peacefully in the future. US military, economic, and political weakness also reduces the threat the US poses to China, reducing China’s insecurity and its incentive to attack Taiwan preventively.