China–US Relations After Trump’s Beijing Visit: Shifting Stabilizers in an Era of Great Power Competition

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This report argues that the China–US relationship is best understood through evolving structural mechanisms that constrain escalation amid intensifying competition, rather than through episodic diplomatic events. It contends that the current phase of bilateral relations is increasingly shaped by Mutually Assured Economic Destruction (MAED) and Reciprocal Vulnerability Interdependence (RVI), in which deep economic and technological interdependence simultaneously generates leverage and vulnerability for both sides. At the same time, the report argues that future stability may increasingly depend on a process of ‘Order Succession Rise’ (OSR), whereby China rises within an international order originally constructed by the United States and becomes partially invested in preserving elements of that order even as the United States itself selectively revises or disengages from it. Drawing on contemporary policy developments, elite discourse, and recent geopolitical crises, the report challenges deterministic interpretations of the ‘Thucydides Trap’ and argues that China–US relations are more accurately characterized as a form of managed rivalry shaped by reciprocal constraints, institutional adaptation, and evolving perceptions.