Policy Brief No.254: Building Mutual Reassurance on the Korean Peninsula Through Stable Coexistence

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The Korean Peninsula remains dangerously unstable due to irreconcilable end-states: North Korea's demand for nuclear recognition and regime autonomy versus the US–South Korea alliance's goal of deterrence, denuclearization, and democratic unification. This clash fuels distrust and heightens the risk of conflict, while regional powers complicate the dynamics. This policy brief proposes a stable coexistence framework to manage rivalry and reduce tensions, assuming denuclearization is off the table for now. The plan includes five themes: stable coexistence with respect for sovereignty, arms control without nuclear recognition, front-line guardrails, humanitarian/societal contact, and strengthening regional scaffolding. This approach seeks to narrow miscalculation pathways and manage risk while preserving each side's long-term political aims.