The Arrogance of Power: Trump and Putin Could Learn a Lesson, If They Could Learn
Herbert Wulf
June 18, 2026
Image: TPYXA_ILLUSTRATION / shutterstock.com
The good news—and indeed almost the only good news regarding the wars against Ukraine and Iran—is that major powers cannot simply force smaller nations to their knees using military power. However formidable the Russian military appeared at the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine has demonstrated over the past four years that it will not simply let itself be pushed around by the aggressor and is, in fact, capable of defending its sovereignty.
Despite the military superiority of the US and Israel, the Iranian regime has survived and placed the US in a difficult geopolitical position. Ukraine and Iran have denied the superpowers a quick and easy victory. Both the US and the Russian presidents evidently lacked a ‘Plan B’ and consequently acted without a clear strategy once initial successes failed to materialize. Now, both major powers find themselves at an impasse. Like Iran, Ukraine—in the view of Fiona Hill of the Brookings Institution—has “denied a superpower an easy victory and imposed significant costs on it”.
Prior planning would have prevented poor performances
The two conflicts are hardly comparable, either in terms of duration or regarding the nature of the state under attack. In the case of Ukraine, there is no end in sight, whereas an end to hostilities—at least a temporary one—has now been agreed upon with Iran. The conflict involving Ukraine saw an attack on a democratically governed country expected to submit to an imperialist ruler. In the case of Iran, the top echelon of an oppressive regime—which had fuelled regional instability and insecurity through its missile and nuclear programs and its support for terrorist groups—was eliminated. The more the US administration focuses on Iran, the more a potential end to the war in Ukraine recedes into the background—although Trump had actually intended to achieve this within the first 24 hours of his presidency.
Nevertheless, there are structural similarities in how the two presidents—with unbridled hubris—deal with their perceived adversaries and how little they learn from the course of the war. Both seem barely able to perceive reality, denying the situation into which they have manoeuvred themselves and their countries through their acts of war
In both instances, the war aims were not achieved. Russia managed neither to occupy Ukraine and oust the alleged Nazi regime in Kyiv nor to realize the scaled-back objective of integrating eastern Ukraine into Russia. When smoke rose from oil facilities following Ukrainian drone strikes during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum this June, Putin acted as if nothing had happened. “Yes, the economic situation is currently sluggish,” Putin said. However, he remarked—nudging at the EU’s own economic difficulties—that the economy was now at the same level at which Europe had long found itself. Even within Russia’s economic policy elite, Putin’s description of the situation is viewed as a flight from reality. Seemingly holed up and shielded from realistic accounts of the situation at the front, Putin is unable to even call the war what it is—a brutal conflict that he continues to label a “special operation.” According to Ukrainian figures, 35,000 Russian soldiers were reportedly killed in the month of March alone, with the total exceeding 350,000 over the course of the war.
As for Trump, he sought to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, permanently eliminate Iran as a threat to the Middle East, support the Iranian people, and topple the hated mullah regime. None of these goals were achieved, despite a massive military effort. While the missile and nuclear programs were indeed attacked and damaged, Iran subsequently continued to fire missiles at Israel and US allies in the Gulf. The primary danger posed by the potential of an Iranian nuclear bomb remains, as Iran’s enriched uranium is still in the hands of the mullahs. The US government no longer speaks at all about the suffering of the Iranian population. By controlling the Strait of Hormuz, Iran holds leverage that could allow it to shake the global economy again at any moment. Realistically speaking, the situation today is more problematic than it was prior to 2018—the year Trump unilaterally withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
It is hard to sell this as a victory at home
Intoxicated by the success of the nighttime operation in Venezuela, Trump likely believed he could defeat Iran in a brief ‘excursion’. While the US president has not been bunkered like Putin, he is surrounded in his second term by loyal yes-people and sycophants who apparently do not dare present the situation to him realistically. In his characteristic manner, the president denies facts and constructs his own version of reality through his social media posts. His frequent public declarations that a solution was “around the corner” and that his deal with Iran would be much better than Obama’s treaty in 2015 were more a sign of weakness than a position of strength.
According to Albert Einstein, “the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”
The current agreement with Iran defers the most difficult points of contention—such as the lifting of sanctions and the nuclear program—to the next round of negotiations. Regarding the war in Ukraine, neither the US nor the Europeans have yet found a viable way out of the impasse. It remains doubtful whether the US administration will learn from the experience that regime change cannot be achieved through massive air strikes. It seems equally doubtful whether Putin will come to realize that his ambitions regarding Ukraine were ill-conceived from the start. His recent statement in St. Petersburg—that the “military operation” would end “when we have achieved our goals”—diminishes hopes for a swift end to the suffering in Ukraine. A lack of willingness to compromise and the arrogance of power displayed by the major powers have unduly prolonged both conflicts, thereby causing unspeakable suffering.
The two wars have demolished Russia’s image as a strong military power, despite all the anxiety raised in Europe, and destroyed American credibility among partners and allies. Probably Robert Kagan’s prediction is valid, that “there is no going back to the status quo ante, no ultimate American triumph that will undo or overcome the harm done.”
Related articles:
Regime Change – Sometimes It Works, Often It Doesn’t (3-minute read)
Iran War Unravels U.S. Strategy and Strengthens Russia–China Axis (3-minute read)
Donald Trump: Self-proclaimed Peacemaker Lacking Fortune and Expertise (3-minute read)
