Policy Briefs on Cooperative Security, Arms Control and Disarmament

This Policy Brief outlines approaches to measuring power in international affairs and surveys the current state of global order using a variety of factors which fall under the headings of control over resources, control over actors, and control over events and outcomes Depending on the weight given to these variables on their own or in combination, global power could be viewed as unipolar, bipolar or multipolar. In summary, autocratisation is growing, democracy is on the defensive, globalisation is slowing, and the Western world is in the midst of a major rearmament drive.

This Policy Brief summarises the main themes which emerged at a Toda Peace Institute policy retreat held in May 2023. The retreat aimed to identify new research directions for institutes concerned with world affairs and global governance. As the centre of gravity of world affairs shifts to the Asia Pacific, and as both China and India rise as great powers, Western liberal democracies, free market economies and the Anglosphere may lose their dominance. These developments coincide with the crumbling of the international arms control order and the partial eclipse of global and regional institutions. International institutions appear to lack sufficient capacity to manage pandemics, climate change, and the new global security challenges. What new norms and policy measures and institutional changes can bend the arc of history away from confrontation and towards a more desirable future?

This Policy Brief describes the global strategic landscape in a world which is at a nuclear inflection point, with intensifying and multiplying nuclear threats. It sketches the Indo-Pacific nuclear situation against the global backdrop, and assesses possible pathways for Australia to once again make a difference in reducing nuclear risks, as a credible candidate to lead the push for a global convention to enshrine a universal no first use (NFU) policy.

This Policy Brief considers the concealed minefields that could yet sink the AUKUS nuclear sub project and lead to finger-pointing recriminations. US President Joe Biden and British and Australian Prime Ministers Rishi Sunak and Anthony Albanese have unveiled the agreement on the way forward for the new tripartite security pact AUKUS to equip Australia with a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines. AUKUS integrates and strengthens Australia’s historic alliances and embeds the UK and the US firmly into Australia’s Indo-Pacific strategy. President Biden has described the naval partnership as a critical instrument, at this ‘inflection point in history’, to stabilise the Indo-Pacific region at a time of rising tensions and the distinct possibility of a war over Taiwan.

This Policy Brief discusses the new geopolitical landscape and its implications for war and peace in the Middle East. US retrenchment from the Middle East—long in waiting—has caused Arab states to seek new partnerships in order to reduce their vulnerabilities in a turbulent world. The geopolitical fault line between East and West has moved westward, from Iran to Saudi Arabia, and the new agreement between Iran and these countries has a huge potential to turn the region in a cooperative direction. Given all the uncertainties, however, the significance of it can only be tested over time.